Two Years...Dow is south...Bigger picture pays

Quote from Cheese:

When does anything change? The DOW has come down 500 points approximately from a month ago. The sages are bearish when the DOW has dropped a chunk and they are bullish when the DOW goes up a chunk.

Any fundamental deep down change? No. Of course not.
Sure, the usual litany of havoc year on year: floods, ground fires, earthquakes & terrorism around the world.

But the USA is still the engine of the capitalist world and make no mistake about that. Everything is fine. I will go to bed and rise in the morning and just like 99% of the Western World I shall be safe, healthy and sufficiently fed as each day comes.

Well, why would the alarmists and losers jacking around the place want to recognize the obvious?
:)
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Thanks...
I realize it's over sold now...fair enough...
but for 120 weeks it was more or less on the bullish side
the small cycles...don't mean that much for the bigger ones...
Nasdaq when 5500...well how do u explain that? in 1992...
QQQQ from 120 to 18...???
Thanks
 
EURo 1.2067 1.1969
YEN 115.0962 114.2402
CABLE 1.7618 1.7458
Swissie 1.2949 1.2846
DOW 10,214.66 10,027.78
MSFT 24.98 24.34
GOOG 295.10 280.40
QQQQ 37.62 36.56

KaL
 
Date Fair Value Upper Fair Value Lower Fair Value
10/14/2005 15:30 10,190.93 10,341.93 10,039.92
10/16/2005 12:17 10,196.70 10,368.26 10,025.15
10/18/2005 9:05 10,276.17 10,502.08 10,050.27
10/20/2005 5:52 10,208.18 10,435.70 9,980.66
 
Quote from Brandonf:

What are you having for dinner on Tuesday May 3rd 2006?

That all said I am bearish for the time being and do agree that you should look at longer term charts. I just dont know how you know where the market is going in two years, then again I am not the smartest guy here.
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I'd say you're doing OK. The fundamental principle of Socratic wisdom is knowing that you don't know. This can be helpful in trading as well.
 
Based on the 4yr cycle, a trough is scheduled to occur next year around October (plus or minus a few months).

4yrcycle.gif
 
Date Fair Value Upper Fair Value Lower Fair Value
10/17/2005 0:00 10422.21294 10675.68882 10168.73706
10/30/2005 23:00 10397.32172 10684.07741 10110.56602
11/13/2005 22:00 10437.9984 10756.60544 10119.39136
11/27/2005 21:00 10461.16431 10799.04324 10123.28538

Weekly data

Date Fair Value Upper Fair Value Lower Fair Value
10/10/2005 10454.33462 11029.40586 9879.263383
12/19/2005 10365.04795 11100.87236 9629.223526
2/27/2006 9761.609783 10893.11149 8630.108079
5/8/2006 8768.343207 10799.68723 6736.999184
 
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