https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/...vestor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions
Tesla currently sells a “Full Self Driving” (FSD) option for $5,000 (or $7,000 after delivery), with Tesla’s recently unveiled
“Navigate on Autopilot” feature that guides the car from “on-ramp to off-ramp” by suggesting and making lane changes, navigating highway interchanges, and proactively taking exits.
The company recently pushed an over-the-air software update to enable automatic lane changes without any input from the driver. And later this year, Tesla promises that cars equipped with FSD will be able to drive automatically in cities, and “recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.”
The name “Full Self Driving” is just branding, and experts warn it is not representative of the car’s real capabilities. When activating Navigate on Autopilot, a warning screen pops up on the center display that reads, “Navigate on Autopilot does not make your Model 3 autonomous. Like other Autopilot features, the driver is still responsible for the car at all times.” Drivers who take their hands off the steering wheel risk disengaging the feature. Musk’s comments today have the potential to further muddy the waters with respect to how self-driving cars are discussed in public.
Most experts say that fully autonomous cars are still 10 years away, or even unachievable with Tesla’s vision-based approach. Nearly every company currently working on self-driving vehicles, including leaders like Alphabet’s Waymo, GM, and Ford, use a light-beam sensor called LIDAR. Musk calls LIDAR “a crutch,” and has long argued that it is too expensive and bulky for Tesla’s vehicles.
At today’s event, Musk went further than he ever has in bashing companies that use laser sensors. “LIDAR is a fool’s errand, and anyone who relies on LIDAR is doomed,” he said.
While investors and experts process Tesla’s presentation, many critics warn that Musk’s statements should be taken with a grain of salt — especially as it relates to full autonomy.
“Claiming that the Tesla cars have the hardware for full autonomy and only need the software is like saying that we have seeds, we just need to plow, plant, nurture, harvest and then eat,” said Raj Rajkumar, an electrical engineer at Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute. “Basically they are at the starting point — full autonomy is many years away.”