Trumps Next Target Industry to Short....(Drumroll Please)

[vanzandt]

The tobacco stocks.

For one thing...he hates smoking. Views it as a character flaw. Which it is.
Two...They cost us billions annually in smoking related illnesses.
And three, ...if this bull continues to run, money will flow out of these stocks naturally since historically they are the safe play in bear markets.

Lastly, these stocks have always been some kind of sacred cow. Tobacco is big money. The ceilings in the Capital Dome are adorned with gold tobacco leaves. Our first currency was tobacco. And in some states its a bigger crime to grow tobacco in your backyard than it is weed. The FDA is not even allowed to regulate them. https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110shrg33769/html/CHRG-110shrg33769.htm

The tobacco industry reeks of "establishment" and needs an upheaval. The time has come and Trumps the man to do it.

Short em. You're one Tweet away from big bucks.

 

[vanzandt]

 

[vanzandt]

Altria (MO) 2/3/17 $70 puts can be had for $0.49
This Friday's $70 puts can be had for $0.11
Its gone up the last 8 sessions in a row. ($71 now).
It was one of the few stocks that fell on the election... Went to $61. Why was that? Hmmm. Its went up up up since.
ER is on 2/1
Might be good for some cheap lottery tickets. Just keep buying the weeklies and wait for the Tweet.

 

[recession2016]

The tobacco stocks.

For one thing...he hates smoking. Views it as a character flaw. Which it is.
Two...They cost us billions annually in smoking related illnesses.
And three, ...if this bull continues to run, money will flow out of these stocks naturally since historically they are the safe play in bear markets.

Lastly, these stocks have always been some kind of sacred cow. Tobacco is big money. The ceilings in the Capital Dome are adorned with gold tobacco leaves. Our first currency was tobacco. And in some states its a bigger crime to grow tobacco in your backyard than it is weed. The FDA is not even allowed to regulate them. https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110shrg33769/html/CHRG-110shrg33769.htm

The tobacco industry reeks of "establishment" and needs an upheaval. The time has come and Trumps the man to do it.

Short em. You're one Tweet away from big bucks.

i'd rather short stocks that are bubbles aka NFLX and NVDA, imo this is the repeat of the tech bubble and the victims this time are going to be millenial bagholders

 

[vanzandt]

i'd rather short stocks that are bubbles aka NFLX and NVDA, imo this is the repeat of the tech bubble and the victims this time are going to be millenial bagholders

You could very well be correct.
Tobacco however is a play on Trump and policy.

 

[Tim Smith]

@vanzandt

Erm, one little problem....

"The Donald" may not smoke but a few people around him may well have other ideas :

http://web.archive.org/web/20010415085348/http://mikepence.com/smoke.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/smoking-...is-plans-to-attack-regulations-195948461.html

 

[vanzandt]

@vanzandt

Erm, one little problem....

"The Donald" may not smoke but a few people around him may well have other ideas :

http://web.archive.org/web/20010415085348/http://mikepence.com/smoke.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/smoking-...is-plans-to-attack-regulations-195948461.html

Good finds. Well, like I said...its always been some kind of sacred cow.
Pence makes it sound like they are trying "to take them away". He's a nut anyway.

But think about it... just one Tweet on raising the taxes on them.
They're $14/pack in NYC. Cheapest is KY at $5/pack. There's certainly room there... and it makes sense. Make em $20/pack. That'll keep kids from getting hooked. Of course they'll all be pot-heads then.

One Tweet... that's all it will take. Those puts are CHEAP. Good weekly lottery tickets imo.
http://www.ibtimes.com/price-cigarettes-how-much-does-pack-cost-each-us-state-map-1553445

 

[victorycountry]

The tobacco stocks.

For one thing...he hates smoking. Views it as a character flaw. Which it is.
Two...They cost us billions annually in smoking related illnesses.
And three, ...if this bull continues to run, money will flow out of these stocks naturally since historically they are the safe play in bear markets.

Lastly, these stocks have always been some kind of sacred cow. Tobacco is big money. The ceilings in the Capital Dome are adorned with gold tobacco leaves. Our first currency was tobacco. And in some states its a bigger crime to grow tobacco in your backyard than it is weed. The FDA is not even allowed to regulate them. https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110shrg33769/html/CHRG-110shrg33769.htm

The tobacco industry reeks of "establishment" and needs an upheaval. The time has come and Trumps the man to do it.

Short em. You're one Tweet away from big bucks.

Good point! I know he is going to correct health care issues and trying to lower the cost too. Trump is a businessman and if I think in his shoes, there is possibility that he would criticize tobacco industry. But to raise that issue, has he ever talked about smoking issue in the past very seriously??

 

[vanzandt]

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong here... but coincidentally... did Altria hit an all-time high today?
No news on that. No alerts. But look at the chart.
Never short a stock making all time highs. Usually sound advice. Maybe not this time.
Hmmmm.
There was a 138,000 share sell imbalance at the close too.
Should have bought those damn $0.14 $70 puts
100 contracts for $1400
Oh well.

 

[vanzandt]

Good point! I know he is going to correct health care issues and trying to lower the cost too. Trump is a businessman and if I think in his shoes, there is possibility that he would criticize tobacco industry. But to raise that issue, has he ever talked about smoking issue in the past very seriously??

He despises cigarettes. Big deal when he was raising his kids. His brother died of cigs and booze.
I mean to me... its always been common sense, they should tax them way more. Its just the tobacco lobby is as powerful as the NRA. Or close to it.