Trumps Next Target Industry to Short....(Drumroll Please)

vanzandt said:
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong here... but coincidentally... did Altria hit an all-time high today?
No news on that. No alerts. But look at the chart.
Never short a stock making all time highs. Usually sound advice. Maybe not this time.
Hmmmm.
There was a 138,000 share sell imbalance at the close too.
Should have bought those damn $0.14 $70 puts
100 contracts for $1400
Oh well.
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Looking at the daily chart, there is uptrend momentum in both monthly (short) and semi-annually momentum (intermediate term).

I just wonder whether buying put on them is a good idea.
If there was sell imbalance then it is highly likely they were sold by retail or small traders otherwise, the stock would have fallen substantially. Note that, there is short selling constraint in US common stocks - so even if bad news coming up, there is not much major shareholders (institutions) can do about it because of the constraint
 
victorycountry said:
Note that, there is short selling constraint in US common stocks - so even if bad news coming up, there is not much major shareholders (institutions) can do about it because of the constraint
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Not following you here on that VC. Are you talking circuit breakers or are you referring to the old uptick rule?

Toyota lost something like 1.2 Billion in market cap in 5 minutes off of a Trump Tweet on the 5th. :D
And they are still going down, although they bounced today.
 
vanzandt said:
Not following you here on that VC. Are you talking circuit breakers or are you referring to the old uptick rule?

Toyota lost something like 1.2 Billion in market cap in 5 minutes off of a Trump Tweet on the 5th. :D
And they are still going down, although they bounced today.
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Yes, exactly, Trump is the market force. So until he criticizes Tobacco industry in the public, my concern is it might be too proactive to buy puts on Tobacco stocks now.

Edit: have no clear knowledge of short selling constraint though. Just know that generally big institutions act more aggressively on good news than bad news because of the constraint
 
vanzandt said:
But thats like waiting to buy a lottery ticket after the drawing.;)
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I hope you are making a right decision!!

By the way, just let you know that the short selling constraint only affects major shareholders when they already know about the information (e.g. earning). However, when there is Unexpected surprises like Trump's critics, major shareholders behave differently like what happened to Toyota

Once again I hope you are right :)
 
Things are going to go better for Trump if he gets Mexico to cooperate with some of his wishes. The Mexicans seem willing....how about long Mexico? Their stocks are pretty beat up. I think something new will happen in the upcoming negotiations.

Mind you, I'm just shooting my face off, not putting my money in this.
 
drcha said:
Things are going to go better for Trump if he gets Mexico to cooperate with some of his wishes. The Mexicans seem willing....how about long Mexico? Their stocks are pretty beat up. I think something new will happen in the upcoming negotiations.

Mind you, I'm just shooting my face off, not putting my money in this.
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Trump wants a prosperous Mexico.
I think you are right.
Wonder what the best play is.
 
vanzandt said:
The tobacco stocks.

For one thing...he hates smoking. Views it as a character flaw. Which it is.
Two...They cost us billions annually in smoking related illnesses.
And three, ...if this bull continues to run, money will flow out of these stocks naturally since historically they are the safe play in bear markets.

Lastly, these stocks have always been some kind of sacred cow. Tobacco is big money. The ceilings in the Capital Dome are adorned with gold tobacco leaves. Our first currency was tobacco. And in some states its a bigger crime to grow tobacco in your backyard than it is weed. The FDA is not even allowed to regulate them. https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110shrg33769/html/CHRG-110shrg33769.htm

The tobacco industry reeks of "establishment" and needs an upheaval. The time has come and Trumps the man to do it.

Short em. You're one Tweet away from big bucks.
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The whole world seems to be ready to legalize weed. Big tobacco companies are the one positioned to take advantage of that and get into it in a big way. So, perhaps, we should go long tobacco/weed instead? :sneaky:
 
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