In other words, Reekter and Phony just aren't as sure of these polls as they would like you to believe. They realize, but they pretend otherwise, that they Just Might Lose.
Trump Opens Up 16 point lead with independents
- Thread starter jem
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In other words, Reekter and Phony just aren't as sure of these polls as they would like you to believe. They realize, but they pretend otherwise, that they Just Might Lose.
I ran some numbers. Basically you bet $20 for every $200 you have to bet on this type of bet. Assuming her chances are 80% , you have a very good chance to walk away with 16.5% on your money if you had ten opportunities to spread out your $200 bet.
Good work on that, I like it. You and I no doubt wish we could find such odds and expectation on a bet we could make thousands or tens of thousands of times!
By the way, where are these bets placed?
So, money management, eh?
Breakeven is 65%
Meaning, if Hilarious Clowntown has a 65% chance of winning, you can make this bet 1000 times and expect to break even at zero.
On the other hand if it's chances are 80% then, using $20 as a base bet, in ten attempts you would expect to make (9.2 x 8) - (20 x 2) = $33.60
In 1000 attempts you'd expect $3,360
In 10 attempts you'd expect to make about 16.5% on a total of $200 wagered.
Now, let's say you have $200 to bet on Himmlery.
Theres a two in ten chance of losing it all. So you could divide that down to 1/10th, or $20, on the theory that your chances of coming out ahead after 10 attempts is much better.
A) Do you think she has at least an 80% chance, and
B) Do you have $200 to put on that using $20 as a base money management unit?
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A few days ago they were paying out about $38 for the same $20 bet. So odds have improved, even as Trump has risen in the polls.
I consider Trump's real chances to be 50%. So I think it's a good binary-type bet, especially if I end up using my 50% Welcome Bonus toward it.
I've got $20 to bet every day, if there was such a bet every day.
Now, Soros says Trump will win popular but lose electoral. You can bet on any kind of pop vote too.