Trump Opens Up 16 point lead with independents

[LacesOut]

I can't understand why you nims are defending your asinine decision.
Answer: it's moronic not to take a bet when you are nearly certain of the outcome.
You don't want a free hundred bucks for risking 300?
It all comes down to one fact - you don't think it's anywhere near certain. No confidence.

 

[Tony Stark]

So you are saying that you wouldn't bet 3$ to win 1$ on a Roulette Spin where if it doesn't land on your number, you win???

Are there this many stupid people actually trading in the markets today?

I don't play roulette

 

[Tony Stark]

If the Patriots were even money to the Browns, I'd bet on em.

That would be a good bet

 

[Ricter]

I can't understand why you nims are defending your asinine decision.
Answer: it's moronic not to take a bet when you are nearly certain of the outcome.
You don't want a free hundred bucks for risking 300?
It all comes down to one fact - you don't think it's anywhere near certain. No confidence.

It comes down to the fact that I can't apply money management to this bet over many trials.

 

[Tony Stark]

It comes down to the fact that I can't apply money management to this bet over many trials.

Agreed.Some people understand sound money management,some don't.

 

[Ricter]

Agreed.Some people understand sound money management,some don't.

In my view, there is no correct answer to this, it comes down to each player's own style and tolerance for risk. For me, I'm not going to bet the farm, and I actually own a farm, to win 1/3 of a farm more, I don't care if it is only 1% I lose it. I carry insurance on the house and the outbuildings for negative outcomes that are even less likely.

 

[LacesOut]

You guys are fucking morons.
No one is saying bet everything you have.
You are just gigantic pussies making excuses for why your candidate sucks, and isn't a surefire winner and thusly, you won't bet on her.

 

[Zzzz1]

That's a moot argument imho. You also get a discrete number trials in trading. As with trading you should always take a bet if you believe the odds favor your expected outcome. Sure , don't bet your life on it, but as in trading lean in when you are very certain of an expected outcome and get good odds.



Unless you don't believe in betting.

It comes down to the fact that I can't apply money management to this bet over many trials.

 

[Good1]

Agreed.Some people understand sound money management,some don't.

 

[Good1]

You seem devastated.I wish I could cheer you up by telling you Trump will win but I'd be lying

So, money management, eh?

Breakeven is 65%

Meaning, if Hilarious Clowntown has a 65% chance of winning, you can make this bet 1000 times and expect to break even at zero.

On the other hand if it's chances are 80% then, using $20 as a base bet, in ten attempts you would expect to make (9.2 x 8) - (20 x 2) = $33.60

In 1000 attempts you'd expect $3,360

In 10 attempts you'd expect to make about 16.5% on a total of $200 wagered.

Now, let's say you have $200 to bet on Himmlery.

Theres a two in ten chance of losing it all. So you could divide that down to 1/10th, or $20, on the theory that your chances of coming out ahead after 10 attempts is much better.

A) Do you think she has at least an 80% chance, and

B) Do you have $200 to put on that using $20 as a base money management unit?