Trump Is Right to Battle China on Trade, But Now Comes the Hard Part

[themickey]

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Australian exports to China is approx 9% of GDP.
Ores slag and ash
Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products
Wool, animal hair, horsehair yarn and fabrics
Cereals
Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal
Meat
Copper
Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement
Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins

 

[SunTrader]

It looks like the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. was pretty consistent between the mid 60's and the year 2000. Outside of a few spikes in the 70's, we stayed pretty consistently between 17 & 18 million jobs. Then China joined the WTO in 2001, and we saw a drastic decline. It isn't a coincidence that the trade deficit exploded after that. We had a trade deficit of about $80 billion back in 2000. Now it's over $500 billion.

There isn't a year by year breakdown here but the BLS shows percentage-wise of the economy (which is far more important than pure number of jobs) in 1915 manufacturing represented 32.4% of the economy and in 2015 it was 8.7% The drop didn't happen overnight!!!

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-1910-and-2015.htm

And here is a chart showing manufacturing employment for the last 10 years .... going up:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001

Choose who you believe. tRump BS or his own BLS dept.

 

[SunTrader]

The problem: You then shift jobs away to other countries, exactly the opposite of what Xi wants, to create jobs at home. China's social safety net is non existence, to keep people from rebelling they need to have jobs.

Obviously not all jobs would be shifted. Tariffs are targeted so only jobs in those categories would be looked at.

 

[Backtester451]

A rising tide raises all ships and like the Germans have done China can increase the market for its goods in the more than 95% of consumers outside the US.

All Trump is doing is accelerating them. But her won't be there to pay the cost.

 

[bone]

It looks like the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. was pretty consistent between the mid 60's and the year 2000. Outside of a few spikes in the 70's, we stayed pretty consistently between 17 & 18 million jobs. Then China joined the WTO in 2001, and we saw a drastic decline. It isn't a coincidence that the trade deficit exploded after that. We had a trade deficit of about $80 billion back in 2000. Now it's over $500 billion.

MIT economist David Autor calculated that Chinese competition cost the U.S. 2.4 million manufacturing jobs between 1999 and 2011.

Clinton administration senior trade negotiators now believe that China's WTO membership only helped big businesses, not US workers. It's well-reported.

 

[bone]

A rising tide raises all ships and like the Germans have done China can increase the market for its goods in the more than 95% of consumers outside the US.

All Trump is doing is accelerating them. But her won't be there to pay the cost.

Google the WTO complaint the EU filed in 2018 against China and expanded in December. The US isn’t the only trading partner with serious concerns about unfair Chinese trade practices and IP theft.

 

[Backtester451]

Google the WTO complaint the EU filed in 2018 against China and expanded in December. The US isn’t the only trading partner with serious concerns about unfair Chinese trade practices and IP theft.

Of course but they have the power to make consumers for their products as Germany and the US has done. The Marshall plan itself was essential to the USA's self interest. The USA got rich after the war but only by having the customers. Europe is pretty soft and being pushed away from the US so they will keep buying. There billions in non-aligned countries who would quite like a Huawei P30 and with a little help can have one. The US is important because of the voracious disposable culture, a small number of wasteful obsessive consumers. China can change the destiny for billions by exporting universities as well.

 

[bone]

China can change the destiny for billions by exporting universities as well.

There are 363,341 Chinese students enrolled in US Universities at present.

 

[Backtester451]

There are 363,341 Chinese students enrolled in US Universities at present.

That is true I am sure. US universities will be 2nd rung within 20 years or less, that is essential to China's plan.

 

[SunTrader]

There are 363,341 Chinese students enrolled in US Universities at present.

Which is a good thing. Many will stay after graduation. Many will return home. Competition is guuuuud!

So which is it. Paranoid they are stealing our intellectual property over there or paranoid they are stealing our "intellectual property" here?