Trump Approval Rating Plummeting Even Among White Voters In Fox News Poll

[jem]

here is what you Tony wrote on november 5th predicting hillary had 73 to 98 percent change of winning and winning big in the electoral college



Betting markets 323-215

Princeton Election Consortium Clinton 312, Trump 226

Silvers original algo 290-246

RCP 297-241

Huff Post 341-197

washington post 290-209

Fox News 283-192

 

[jem]

then you posted this...

Huge jump in the betting markets after FBI news

 

[Tony Stark]

here is what you Tony wrote on november 5th predicting hillary had 73 to 98 percent change of winning and winning big in the electoral college



Betting markets 323-215

Princeton Election Consortium Clinton 312, Trump 226

Silvers original algo 290-246

RCP 297-241

Huff Post 341-197

washington post 290-209

Fox News 283-192

Pundits were wrong,odds and national polls were right.

 

[jem]

your polls were crooked as could be until the end when they unskewed or herded. that is why the pundits were wrong. they were invested in the unskewed polls.


no one in the world called it better than the algo...

"The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging."

its way too close to call. The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging.

So its too close to call.

I find myself and the algo agreeing with Nate Silver's simulations lately.

Because most the national polls unskewed during the herding last week I now see Nate;s work as making sense. Instead of garbage in garbage out as it was before the herding... his work is now very "tradeable".



If you tell me who wins florida, colorado, and Pennsylvania... that is what I will be watching.

 

[Tony Stark]

national polls were only correct after they unskewed as I predicted they would.

Most national polls showed Hillary would get more votes since both were the nominees.

 

[jem]

but they had hillary with very large leads until they unskewed. that is why your pundits were so wrong. lets not forget you were posting big electoral college wins for hillary on Nov 5th.


here I documented some of the unskewing...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


RCP NATIONAL AVG.
11/6 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Georgia Leans Trump »»» Toss Up
11/4 Indiana Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/4 Maine Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Maine CD1 Likely Clinton »»» Leans Clinton +1.6


11/4 Michigan Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 New Mexico Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Virginia Toss Up »»» Leans Clinton
11/3 Louisiana Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
11/3 Mississippi Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
11/3 Texas Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/3 Utah Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/2 Georgia Toss Up »»» Leans Trump
11/2 Missouri Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/2 Pennsylvania Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/2 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/1 New Hampshire Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
10/30 Colorado Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
10/30 Texas Toss Up »»» Leans Trump[/QUOTE]

Most national polls showed Hillary would get more votes since both were the nominees.

 

[Tony Stark]

but they had hillary with very large leads until they unskewed. that is why your pundits were so wrong. lets not forget you were posting big electoral college wins for hillary on Nov 5th.


here I documented some of the unskewing...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


RCP NATIONAL AVG.
11/6 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Georgia Leans Trump »»» Toss Up
11/4 Indiana Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/4 Maine Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Maine CD1 Likely Clinton »»» Leans Clinton +1.6


11/4 Michigan Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 New Mexico Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Virginia Toss Up »»» Leans Clinton
11/3 Louisiana Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
11/3 Mississippi Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
11/3 Texas Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/3 Utah Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/2 Georgia Toss Up »»» Leans Trump
11/2 Missouri Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/2 Pennsylvania Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/2 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/1 New Hampshire Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
10/30 Colorado Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
10/30 Texas Toss Up »»» Leans Trump

I said national polls.State polls are lesser quality.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

The candidate who won the popular vote won the election 93% of the time in this country's history.

You knew full well that we were in a period in history where the polls were being superceded by reality rather frequently. Not only here but in Europe- think Brexit. The polls were worthless as tits on a nun all the way through the primaries as far as picking winners- regardless of what should have happened based on historical data. The polls consistently predicted trump losing in state after state. Except he didn't. The polls consistently show Hillary winning in state after state except she ended out sweating bullets because Bernie ate a large, large unpredicted portion of her lunch.

As I said before, you can't just robotically pass along data from media matters. Sometimes you need to look at the data and then add some original thinking to it. Not something we have seen you do here.

 

[Tony Stark]

The polls were worthless as tits on a nun all the way through the primaries as far as picking winners- regardless of what should have happened based on historical data. The polls consistently predicted trump losing in state after state. Except he didn't. .

The national polls showed Trump would get the most votes in the primaries

 

[UsualName]

Trump won the electoral college not the popular vote, the national polls were pretty accurate. The electoral college predictions were not wrong either. His electoral college margin was razor thin in three states that put him over the top, under 80k in total. That is as close as it gets. His odds really were between 10 and 35%.

His approval rating currently is in the trash, along with congress because the minority is governing the majority. Those polls are accurate too. This is why the republicans can’t pass any significant legislation. Their ideas don’t have the support of the people. They have to try to force their agenda on people.

So yes, the republicans hold the house because of gerrymandering and the presidency because of the electoral college and the senate because states with low population and resource based economies have equal representation in the senate. It really is a perfect storm for republicans to rule without the consent of the people.

This is the state of our country.