Triple Dip Recession or Depression?

brokerboy · Jan 30, 2013

my friend you post 10 times a day and don't make sense 7 of them. i can't say your wrong because obviously the market is up. companies are not hiring for years though, the fed is pumping free money in the markets, and devaluing the dollar right? are we on that same page at least? the stock market at some point is linked to the economy and it always has been so tell me

what people will probably do?

Quote from oldtime:

how many times do I have to tell you this?

We are not trading the economy

We are trading what people will probably do

oldtime · Jan 30, 2013

Quote from brokerboy:

my friend you post 10 times a day and don't make sense 7 of them. i can't say your wrong because obviously the market is up. companies are not hiring for years though, the fed is pumping free money in the markets, and devaluing the dollar right? are we on that same page at least? the stock market at some point is linked to the economy and it always has been so tell me

what people will probably do?

I've been 100% long for a long time

and had to get more long when rates hit what I call a bottom

so I'm just looking for a place to get out

but that doesn't have much to do with trading

when I was young, I could post a hell of a lot more that just 10 times a day

but I am doing the best I can

(I use to post under a different handle before I had my last mental breakdown and knew everything.)

brokerboy · Feb 1, 2013

its hard to have a thread like this because this market keeps going up. i am more and more confident its going to breakdown hard though. this is how it always goes with power to the top than boom. you can't build an economy on fed money and how is the fed going to stop spending money without killing the economy. i think in less than 3 months the s&p is up like 170 points so are aliens from space coming to america and hiring 20,000,000 people for 100k a year each? i don't know when it corrects but there is nothing good about this economy.

oldtime · Feb 1, 2013

Quote from brokerboy:

its hard to have a thread like this because this market keeps going up. i am more and more confident its going to breakdown hard though. this is how it always goes with power to the top than boom. you can't build an economy on fed money and how is the fed going to stop spending money without killing the economy. i think in less than 3 months the s&p is up like 170 points so are aliens from space coming to america and hiring 20,000,000 people for 100k a year each? i don't know when it corrects but there is nothing good about this economy.

no kidding, it reminds me of one of those wars we start but never quite know when we will end it.

Ben says, 6.8% unemployment

they call raising taxes and cutting spending a "fiscal cliff"

what will they call it when 80 billion a month of buying drops off?

oh well, other than 40,000 names on a wall in Washington, the war in Viet Nam ended rather well. Now you can buy a slice of pizza from Pizza Hut in Saigon, which is what we were always fighting for.

Daring · Feb 1, 2013

Quote from budcampbell:

The Japanese want a lower yen, and they are getting it.

This is only the beginning of the tremendous currency wars that will possibly lead us to World War 3.

brokerboy · Feb 1, 2013

was it 6.8 or 6.5? its all silly since its not how you figure out the true unemployment number anyway. they did not raise taxes really and i want to see them make cuts. the real money is in SS and medicare come on who will touch that?

the 80 billion a month well if it was anyone else but the fed they would go to jail. they bought all the debt, equality, than printed money, bought the whole bond market, than sold the stocks for profits, and than said see i told you i knew what i was doing. i want to see them get out of that trade now.

Quote from oldtime:

no kidding, it reminds me of one of those wars we start but never quite know when we will end it.

Ben says, 6.8% unemployment

they call raising taxes and cutting spending a "fiscal cliff"

what will they call it when 80 billion a month of buying drops off?

oh well, other than 40,000 names on a wall in Washington, the war in Viet Nam ended rather well. Now you can buy a slice of pizza from Pizza Hut in Saigon, which is what we were always fighting for.

morganist · Feb 2, 2013

Quote from brokerboy:

was it 6.8 or 6.5? its all silly since its not how you figure out the true unemployment number anyway. they did not raise taxes really and i want to see them make cuts. the real money is in SS and medicare come on who will touch that?

the 80 billion a month well if it was anyone else but the fed they would go to jail. they bought all the debt, equality, than printed money, bought the whole bond market, than sold the stocks for profits, and than said see i told you i knew what i was doing. i want to see them get out of that trade now.

Do you think the phillips curve is accurate when it explains the relationship between money supply and employment?

brokerboy · Feb 2, 2013

are we talking world or USA only? my feeling is full employment is a dream in the USA because of technology and the world is not the same as it was 30 years ago. you are not going to open a book and see everybody in china riding a bike anymore. the natural resources the USA once had mostly to ourselves is now being globally shared so we get less and we pay more for it too. how do you compete for a job that someone will do for 10k a year in another country that was a 50k job here? you can't live on 10k a year in the USA either. to be honest the workers in other countries probably care more, work harder, and are educated well enough to do the job too. i would guess the phillips curve is to simple because the world is very different than it was 100 years ago.

Quote from morganist:

Do you think the phillips curve is accurate when it explains the relationship between money supply and employment?

nutmeg · Feb 2, 2013

I think the government needs to apply a policy of honesty in regards to the economy

I looked for a link... but will have to go from memory.

When we had our banking crisis back in '08, Senator Chuck Schumer (head of banking committee) made a very honest and disparaging remark publicy about banks. He caught a lot of flack for his statement and was reminded that he has a responsibility not to undermine confidence in the banking system.

We now have a 14k dow. Bull markets end on good news.

Triple Dip Recession or Depresssion?

We might have another credit downgrade market rally.

morganist · Feb 3, 2013

Quote from nutmeg:

I think the government needs to apply a policy of honesty in regards to the economy

I looked for a link... but will have to go from memory.

When we had our banking crisis back in '08, Senator Chuck Schumer (head of banking committee) made a very honest and disparaging remark publicy about banks. He caught a lot of flack for his statement and was reminded that he has a responsibility not to undermine confidence in the banking system.

We now have a 14k dow. Bull markets end on good news.

Triple Dip Recession or Depresssion?

We might have another credit downgrade market rally.

The article is about the UK.