Quote from morganist:
Is it just me or have they just invented a new name for a depression?
http://morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/triple-dip-recession-or-depression.html
Era's come and go.
The US campaign stayed with the Industrial Era.
The QE of the US has just switched from "time Targets" to "categorical targets". Notably "unemployment".
QE looks pretty steady out to Q3 of 2014. The US gov't is using a higher value of QE than the private sector esimates is required.
All of the above combines to dictate that we are in a Depression from about JUN/JUL 2006.
The present era may be termed "service" or "information". Either way, jobs creation does not need to be predicated on "full employment". A full employment orientation just disappeared around the mid 50's for those who were sophisitcated.
In my lifetime the economic concept of "fad" first appeared measurably with the Club of Rome valuation of "satisfaction".
The cotton and plastic raw materials showed as inverse curves. The smoking curve resembled the cotton curve.
I usually post in DEC for the next annual legs (market directional moves); 2013 will be the most unimaginable year on record.
I was glad to see you posted some reality for others to consider.
Curves will be "cascading" as a consequence of financial controllers taking others out of irrational participation. Neiderhoffer was a good example a while back as was LTCM. 2013 is a global "lock" and the cascading is more and more potentially demonstratable in terms of leading 'tells'.
I use a 1600 bar(5 min, RTH only) market PACE measure and it has halved in recent times. (1 year difference). Sidelined cash is not a coincidence.
The US debt ratings usually decline when no more can kicking is possible. The triple A grows more distant than each step away in the opposite direction. The eastward movement of the Chinese desert almost matches the US fiscal policy decay.
