TRIN >1.6 all day long?? No drop in SPX??!?!

[tommcginnis]

Geez, guys -- when I add
sound U.S. economic fundamentals
+ multiple sources of "Earnings growth!" news in multiple S&P sectors (10-15%)
+ stable moves in EU economic fundamentals
+ stable moves in EEM economic fundamentals
------------------------------------------------------------
10-15% growth in E, to be followed/met by 10%-15% growth in ol' P

We've been stair-stepping up for the last 18?? months -- up a bunch, then camping out for ~6 weeks, then up some more. I think we are *more* poised for such growth than I would've suggested 18 months ago -- very much so. My own hope right now, is that we climb in a fashion that allows me to escape my top-side load, and although I AM waiting for a >5% drop before Christmas, I am still writing $10 SPX spreads on the bottom, and $5 spreads on top (so I have a 5x10 same-expiry roll easily available)...

No guarantees, fo sho, fo sho, but....

 

[theapprentice]

Maybe it drops tomorrow instead

 

[beerntrading]

Maybe it drops tomorrow instead

Man, I have been reading through some old posts today, and this really does remind me of the lead in to 5/17 and 6/9. I think you might be right... (And I'll do quite well if you are)

 

[vanzandt]

Voting base?
What "base"?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/12/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-speech-white-house
Up we go.

 

[d08]

I don't see anything happening with the Iran deal. Trump alone has other problems and creating another problem here is just plain stupidity (but, we know him), some EU countries are unlikely to follow Trump because Iran is stable and internal US political popularity contests don't contribute to the EU. Just because Israel wants the US to jump, they don't have to.
Saudis are also interested in destroying Iran obviously but they're too busy killing children in Yemen, making an example out of Qatar and there are many internal problems brewing as well. As a distraction tactic for a tribal culture, an attack on Iran might make sense though.

On top of that there is the ongoing saga with North Korea which realistically could escalate to something more, even if by accident.

Let's not forget Ukraine and Eastern Europe as a whole and South China sea.

A correction might just come from inflated markets letting off steam triggered by something relatively insignificant. This feels 2007ish to me though.

 

[vanzandt]

I don't see anything happening with the Iran deal. .

Exactly. Trump punted beautifully. Thats why we went up today again... as planned.

I have said this several times over the last 6 months and I'll say it again... as long as Trump keeps crowing about the markets being up.... the bull will remain intact.
The "outer circles" of the "inner circles" if you will.
Its a WS frat thing.

Sooooo.....It may grind, but a 5% correction is not in the works just yet. We'll have plenty of warning ahead of time.... for those astute enough to see/(?)/feel it.

Smart money has a shopping list prepared for the inevitable fire sale....
But Armageddon is not happenin' in our lifetime.
A brave new world lies just ahead.

Same as it ever was.
....."Same as it ever was".

 

[Windlesham1]

Smart money got handed its backside in 2008/9 that's why the grown ups had to step in with QE, the Muppetry of WS knows no bounds

 

[beerntrading]

Smart money has a shopping list prepared for the inevitable fire sale....
But Armageddon is not happenin' in our lifetime.

And even if it does happen in our life time, it seems a bit silly to prepare for it with your portfolio. Whether there's a '1' in the corner of your paper or a '100' matters little when it takes wheelbarrow-fulls to buy bread.