TRIN >1.6 all day long?? No drop in SPX??!?!

[tommcginnis]

Uh ohhhhhh.
The NYSE TRIN is currently at a ferocious-BEAR level of 1.71 -- this should be a major sell-off -- but the ES volume hasn't cracked 600k with just 90 minutes to go, and price is essentially unchanged from the open, and from yesterday's close.

What gives??
Well, a *lot* of relative selling, and no change in price?? And little volume to back it up??
To me, that just *stinks* of profit-taking, of cash-building, of *fear* of not being able to participate in the next run-up.
To me, it is the coiling of the market, ready for a spring *up*.
(and to be written up top right now.... those SPX 2570s and '75s and '80s and even '90s...... they are looking pretty ballsy right about now.

Stay awake out there!

 

[beerntrading]

Ah, been waiting for one of these threads. I'm a bit spooked right now feeling a bit like the run-up to May 17th. Nothing to base it on beyond my feels and some rather basic chart patterns. Wanted to get other's takes on where we're going. A 1.5% drop tomorrow would be a huge windfall for me, and also clear up my sentiment going forward. I don't often get the gut-feeling premonitions, but I know not to doubt them.

And it's shed about 2 points in the time I've written this.

(Also, maybe change the title to something more SPX oriented to get more replies.)

 

[vanzandt]

Uh ohhhhhh.
The NYSE TRIN is currently at a ferocious-BEAR level of 1.71 -- this should be a major sell-off -- but the ES volume hasn't cracked 600k with just 90 minutes to go, and price is essentially unchanged from the open, and from yesterday's close.

What gives??
Well, a *lot* of relative selling, and no change in price?? And little volume to back it up??
To me, that just *stinks* of profit-taking, of cash-building, of *fear* of not being able to participate in the next run-up.
To me, it is the coiling of the market, ready for a spring *up*.
(and to be written up top right now.... those SPX 2570s and '75s and '80s and even '90s...... they are looking pretty ballsy right about now.

View attachment 178657

Stay awake out there!

Ghosts of Octobers past?
That or uncertainty about the Iran deal.

 

[beerntrading]

Ghosts of Octobers past?
That or uncertainty about the Iran deal.

A good time for a Warren Buffet quote: "A bull market is like sex. It feels best right before it ends." That said, in the long term SPX chart, November 2016 looks a lot like the pivots away from natural growth into the bubble from 1986, 1994, and 2006.

October is always a scary month for me, and this one in particular given the potential for global catalysts to get the ball rolling on top of the very plausible tax reform collapse (which I suspect is unlikely to be contained in the way North Korean saber rattling or health care reform collapse was).

 

[S2007S]

This is a market that no one in their lifetimes has ever witnessed....

 

[newwurldmn]

A good time for a Warren Buffet quote: "A bull market is like sex. It feels best right before it ends." That said, in the long term SPX chart, November 2016 looks a lot like the pivots away from natural growth into the bubble from 1986, 1994, and 2006.

October is always a scary month for me, and this one in particular given the potential for global catalysts to get the ball rolling on top of the very plausible tax reform collapse (which I suspect is unlikely to be contained in the way North Korean saber rattling or health care reform collapse was).

I was looking at a bunch of random stocks today. It's amazing the market cap growth many stocks have enjoyed despite no revenue or earnings growth in the last twelve months.

 

[S2007S]

I was looking at a bunch of random stocks today. It's amazing the market cap growth many stocks have enjoyed despite no revenue or earnings growth in the last twelve months.

Exactly....you made a very good point....this will be something to remember when the markets are down 1/3 from their highs....again it's only after the fact that these facts you mention come to light...right now no one is paying attention to the small warnings because every day the markets are touching historical highs.

 

[vanzandt]

Exactly....you made a very good point....this will be something to remember when the markets are down 1/3 from their highs....again it's only after the fact that these facts you mention come to light...right now no one is paying attention to the small warnings because every day the markets are touching historical highs.

VIX is below 10.

 

[S2007S]

VIX is below 10.

I know....the vix is at historical lows...
I waiting patiently to get in on VXX...last trade I made was in VXX from around 46 to 50... haven't touched it yet....will start buying soon....will by in 1/4 positions...
Waiting for the Dow to break above 23000 first..

 

[beerntrading]

I was looking at a bunch of random stocks today. It's amazing the market cap growth many stocks have enjoyed despite no revenue or earnings growth in the last twelve months.

I don't see that as necessarily problematic. We've witnessed a change over a generation in the way we live / travel / commute / communicate--the last such change would have been the relatively quick succession of proliferation of radio / rail / phones / refrigeration (& Air conditioning)...

So, I don't necessarily see it as problematic that you have companies that consolidated over the 2000 and 2008 crashes now increasing their market penetration at the expense of current profits is necessarily indicative of P/E ratios out of step with actual company values. AMZN alone contributes about 2.5% of the weight of the S&P, but almost nothing to its earnings. That alone is enough to raise the S&P's P/E ratio by almost 1.

So, the 1905-ish (I think...I working from memory here) to 1929 was a pretty solid bull run of better than 20 years. So this market may have a long way to go before it gives up steam. But you'd do well to remember how that one ended.

My radar is on high alert at the moment, and I'm concerned about short-term bearishness to the point I may sit out for a bit. But I'm not concerned about the overall health of the market standing on its own. In the context of global and political economics, there's probably reason for concern, but I'd think these are more likely to be short term setbacks than long-term downtrends.