Triangle, base, flag

Watch ideas: for 12/24/2007

Long:

PTV next earning date: Jan 23, 2008
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12242007ptv.jpg

GTI next earning date: Feb 28, 2008 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12242007gti.jpg


Short:
FCH next earning date: Feb 21, 2008 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12242007fch.jpg

I want to take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas, and for you who don’t celebrate a happy day off. I wish you all peace and a great time with family and friends. I will back after Christmas and I will spend time with you for the rest of the year.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
ivica@ivicacharts.com
 
Chart of the week
Date:12/10/2007
Symbol: FWLT
Company Profile: Foster Wheeler, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, primarily provides engineering and construction services to the oil and gas, oil refining, chemical/petrochemical, pharmaceutical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance sectors worldwide.

Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Heavy Constructions

TRADING PLAN
Entry price: above: 167.75
Stop price: under: 152.75
Target area: 200 areas

Chart explanation:
FWLT forming third try triangle on the daily chart. Lots of time it will be “chart” and will bounce very strong. For now stop is under previous low and depend on setup volume and pace I will trails stop with 10sma or 20sma on the daily chart. Equal move is around $200 big number resistance area and again depend on volume and pace I will use it for target area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01032008fwlt.jpg


If anyone will have any question about this trade or any other setups please feel free to contact me

Kind regards
Ivica
 
Trade example

LINTA (Liberty Media Interactive)

Trading plan:
Entry price: 19.65
Stop price: 20.10
Target area: 18-open

Exit price: swing trade: 18.07
% results: 8.04
Result: 1.58
Risk/reward: swing: 8.04

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12262007linta.jpg

LINTA has setup at 12/27/2007 based on the weekly triangle and breakdown under 20sma support area (blue line). I used stop above $20.10 what was 50sma resistance area on the daily chart. It is important support/resistance area and I use them often for swing trades. Also it was above $20 as big number resistance area. LINTA fall very strong and fast and with first day in New Year reached first support area and fall in to oversold area on the weekly chart. That was enough reason to close trade or take partials. LINTA have more room to move down, but I will expect correction on the daily chart first.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01032008linta.jpg

If anyone will have any question about this trade or any other setups please feel free to contact me

Kind regards
Ivica
 
Symbol: ARM
Company Profile: ArvinMeritor, Inc. supplies a range of integrated systems, modules, and components to the motor vehicle industry worldwide. It designs, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, sells, services, and supports a range of products for use in commercial, specialty, and light vehicles.

Sector: Consumer Goods

Industry: Auto Parts

TRADING PLAN
Entry price: above: 11.00

Stop price: under: 10.35
Target area: 12-13 areas

Chart explanation:
ARM are forming reversal pattern on the daily chart. We can see that Pace on bounce is stronger then selling pace and also buying volume is bigger the selling volume. When we include weekly double bottom pattern I expect that ARM will continue bounce from weekly low. Also we can see on the daily chart that last several days ARM is in consolidation after bounce what is third try to break above 50sma resistance area (green line). Depend on pace after setup I will look for $12 or $13 area as target area what will be around 20sma resistance area on the weekly chart. If anyone will have any question about trading plan please feel free to contact me.

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01222008arm.jpg
 
Last week trade example

AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation)

Trading plan: Short trade
Date entry. 01/08/2008
Entry price: $50.45 Stop price: $52.25
Target area: $45.00

Exit date. 01/18/2008
Exit price: 45.20
% results: 10.41
Result: $5.25
Risk/reward: 2.92

Trade exmaplanation:
AVY is good example why we tell that third try can be charm. On the daily chart we can see that setup was at 01/082008 under green bar and it was under$50.50. I used stop above 50sma ($52.25 area) with target at $45 area. Reason for target was daily equal move and number support area. That was reasonable target area and market action helped us in that mission. My main measure for success is risk reward and it was very nice on this trade.

If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic

Setup chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01082008avy.jpg

Exit chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01222008avy.jpg
 
Result of the week

WB (Wachovia Corp.)

Trading plan: Long trade
Date entry. 01/23/2008
Entry price: $34.65 Stop price: $33.90
Target area: $37-$38 areas

Exit date. 01/23/2008
Exit price: 37.00
% results: 6.78
Result: $2.35
Risk/reward: 3.13


Trade exmaplanation:
Another third try breakup. After a very weak open on Tuesday, I was looking for a reversal possibility and WB was just one of a number of reversal trades that we had. If you are interested for all results please contact me. WB consolidated under its' 200sma (red line) on the 15 min chart. We can also see that the bounce from lows was strong and after a midday consolidation and a good market situation, it was a nice candidate for a 15 min continuation. On the third try WB broke up and the initial target was $37 area but after a strong break up, strong buying pace and larger volume, I expected to see more than the equal move resistance area. Because of that it is always important to follow pace and volume and compare them with past action
If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic
Setup chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01232008wb.jpg

Exit chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01282008wb.jpg
 
Chart of the week

Date: 02/11/2008
Symbol: EBAY

Company Profile: eBay, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online marketplaces for the sale of goods and services, online payments services, and online communication offerings to a diverse community of individuals and businesses in the United States and internationally..

Sector: Services

Industry: Catalog & Mail order houses

TRADING PLAN
Entry price: above: $28.20

Stop price: under: $27.50
Target area: $30 areas

Chart explanation:
On the daily chart we can see that EBAY bounced form daily double bottom patter. Volume increase and was higher on bounce from low and also we can see that during consolidation (last days) volume decrease. That is what we like to see during consolidation. It is important to follow market action because I don’t think that EBAY will make it without market support and that mean if market will continue with selling pressure it will be hard for EBAY to stay in daily reversal pattern. For resistance we must pay attention on previous daily high ($29 area) and 200sma resistance area on the 60 min chart. Breakout pace and volume will be key for EBAY success.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02112008ebay.jpg

If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic
 
CHART OF THE WEEK

Date: 02/19/2008
Symbol: SNCR

Company Profile: Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. provides multi-channel transaction management solutions to the communications services and digital content marketplaces primarily in North America.

Sector: Technology

Industry: Applocation Software

TRADING PLAN
Entry price: under $18.35

Stop price: above $19.50
Target area: $15 areas

Chart explanation:
First what we can see on SNCR daily and weekly charts is down trend. On the daily chart trying to break triangle pattern what is at same time weekly continuation pattern. I will look for trend continuation and next strong support area is $15 as whole number support area. For trade success it is important that SNCR stay under 10sma on the daily chart and I will trail stop with it. Also we must pay attention on breakdown volume and pace what will tell us about target expectation. If anyone will have any question during trade or before setup please feel free to contact me.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008sncr.jpg

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic
 
Result of the week

CRL (Charles River Laboratories International Inc.)

Trading plan: Short trade
Date entry. 02/13/2008
Entry price: $60.95 Stop price: $61.50
Target area: $60-59.50 areas

Exit date. 02/13/2008
Exit price: 59.60
% results: 2.21
Result: $1.35
Risk/reward: 2.45

Trade exmaplanation:
Reason for CRL short trade was bull trap what we can see on the chart. With other words at 02/13/2008 CRL open was under 02/12/2008 close. Since CRL was closed near higher at 02/12/2008 next day open brought long trades in trap and that is always good short opportunity. On bull trap trade setup is under 5 min low and stop is above high at setup time. Of course that is generally because other factors like support areas on all time frames and size of 5 min bar. If 5 min bar will be extended I will continua to watch chart because traps have nice tendency for continuations and CRL is good example for that. We took when 60 min triangle was broken, also it was good for swing trade, and reason why we used it for day trade was nice reward and uncertainly market moment. For me risk/reward is main success measure and I think CRL was in line with it.

If anyone will have any comment or question please feel free to contact me.

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic

Setup chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02132008crl.jpg

Exit chart:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008crl.jpg
 
Position trade


Symbol: ATG


Company Profile:
AGL Resources, Inc., an energy services holding company, engages in the distribution of natural gas primarily in Florida, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia. It operates in four segments: Distribution Operations, Retail Energy Operations, Wholesale Services, and Energy Investments.
Sector: Consumer Goods

Industry: Utilities

Trading Strategy:
Last several months ATG consolidate at 50sma monthly support area with breakdown tendency. After reversal from highs ATG lost monthly uptrend and I will look for equal move target area. For that possibility it is important that ATG break under 50sma monthly (200sma weekly) support area and as trailing stop I will use 10sma monthly resistance area. For now entry area is around $35.50-$35 support area what is under 50sma support area (green line on the monthly charts). If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me.

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008atg.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008atgweekly.jpg
 
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