Trend lines and Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle

farmerjohn1324 said:
I'm stuck on wondering if any of these trends are actually real in the first place. And if any positive results would just be false positives.
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Real in what sense?

Graphically, a trend is obviously a trend if price is moving consistently in one direction in preference to the other.

But we're not here for artistic appreciation. TA features have no value unless they suggest a higher probability of something happening than 50%. The feature does not have to be the causative factor of what happens, nor do they have to be correct all of the time, just more often than 50% of the time.
 
tomorton said:
Real in what sense?

Graphically, a trend is obviously a trend if price is moving consistently in one direction in preference to the other.

But we're not here for artistic appreciation. TA features have no value unless they suggest a higher probability of something happening than 50%. The feature does not have to be the causative factor of what happens, nor do they have to be correct all of the time, just more often than 50% of the time.
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...and of course... that the 51% of the time you are correct, you are correct for more than the 49% of the time you are wrong. ;) Or somethin' like that.

Now, I will go jog, and ponder whether Heisenberg could have made any money trading... :cool: Hey, meet my new clerk Werner. Werner, go down and get us some bagels...
 
use a random number generator to draw some curvy lines like indicators or some straight ones like trendlines, they will work just as well - (being correct 50% of the time LOL).
 
dozu888 said:
use a random number generator to draw some curvy lines like indicators or some straight ones like trendlines, they will work just as well - (being correct 50% of the time LOL).
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Is this the truth? And are you sure? Do others agree?

Technical trading systems can be back tested, you know.
 
tomorton said:
Real in what sense?

Graphically, a trend is obviously a trend if price is moving consistently in one direction in preference to the other.

But we're not here for artistic appreciation. TA features have no value unless they suggest a higher probability of something happening than 50%. The feature does not have to be the causative factor of what happens, nor do they have to be correct all of the time, just more often than 50% of the time.
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%%
Are trends real?? That is maybe why when I first started measuring trends I was not sure how practical it would be .But it's 100% easier to identify a trend / good trend than follow one, real time+ profit from it .

Some thing else good that comes out of Chicago, funny but true. The smarter you are;
the longer it takes- William Eng.:D:D,:D:D:D:D:D:D:D[Don't even have to hit 50% to profit; but most profitable, know how to average >> 50% hit rate .Markets/market numbers are not random] One would have to be drunk to confuse a random walk down Wall Street; that is alcohol, not random.
 
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farmerjohn1324 said:
Similarly, the more you zoom in on a chart, the less meaningful the trend lines are. On a tick chart, they're all but meaningless. You could "see" a clear trend on a 5-minute chart, only to zoom out to a week and see it as meaningless.
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Any trendline that is not straight is wrong anyway. At sub hourly charts you are basically trading microstructure, so it seems obvious without explanation that any trendline drawn on the basis of such phenomena would not be observable from higher timeframes.

I'm thoroughly enjoying that people are focused on the quantum physics and not the fact you were just using it as an analogy.
 
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