Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

thats a joke. The only game in town that beat trend following in 2008 was being short financials straight from Jan into Dec. Who has such exposure and nothing else? Very few.

Secondly, the point is that for the retail investor (I stress investor!) trend following is THE ONLY WAY to maximize your investment over a long period of time. Name me ANYTHING else that an investor should do rather than trend following.


Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, to a point. however, that does not make it a true edge or something that is applicable to retail traders.

i know from direct experience that option arb/marketmaking strategies blew away trend following in 2008 and continues to do so in 2009.

remember, the public are trend followers by default. we all know happens to the public....

surf
More...
 
Quote from EPrado:


Kind of expect this crap from a guy like Surf. It's frightening to think that a guy like Surf actually guides people on where to invest their money.
More...

Actually, it's the opposite. It is FANTASTIC that such dumb (or disinfo agents) people like surf and other trend following or moving averages bashers exist - without these morons it would be impossible to earn money on trend following!
 
I tell you the right answer. If I traded the trend as an investor (which I do in my personal long term investment account) then I had the choice between a) putting on a hedge when markets got into the bear market rally or b) riding the bear market rally because the long term trend is still down. I chose to go with choice b which of course shows up as a drawdown of about 20%from the equity peak. I am very vigilant in observing how markets will trade in the upcoming couple weeks because this will give the major direction for the next few months.

You dont need to believe in trends nobody forces you but the evidence clearly points to the long term track record of success for trend following.

Quote from asap:

the fact that a certain stock or index price have been "trending" in the past doesn't mean it will "trend" in the future.

for instance, are you selling the SPX "negative trend" that initiated last fall? or are you buying the SPX "positive trend" that started last month? you dont know the right answer.

that's because trends only exist in hindsight.
More...
 
Surf you are 100% correct because you base everything on theories and stochastic calculus. But markets dont care about theories...markets exhibit trends when there is a change in fundamentals on which the crowd reacts and drives prices. Because not everybody reacts instantaneously there is a feedback effect which results in sustained moves in the same direction.

Now how is your approach to the markets any better? Why would any position you put on move in your anticipated direction? Even if you traded support and resistance, what is support and resitance first of all. Just because the market traded to a certain level in the previous x hours/days/minutes it has to bounce off that level next time? Why? If people panic they sell they dont care where the market was in the previous session.

You dont need to believe in trend following, fine. But show me an idea that works better and BACK IT UP.

Quote from marketsurfer:

how many moves or series of moves in one direction increase the chance of the next move being in the same direction?

this is something that is easily tested.

unfortunately, for trend followers, there is no number of moves that increase probabilities of the next move being in same direction.

therefore, the concept of trend following is fatally flawedregardless of the anecdotal claims. without being able to quantify this most simple question, entering into a trend has no edge over random entry.

prove me wrong.


surf:D
More...
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

buying lows and selling highs is how fortunes are made.

surf
More...

Those who try yo buy the lows and sell the highs lose fortunes.
Only amateurs and idiots try to buy the lows and sell the highs.
 
And for the 109th straight time Surf can't back up his ridiculous theories and goes into hiding.

It must suck being wrong 99.9% of the time huh Surf ?
 
Seeing how many posts and views this thread has generated I would venture a guess to say that Baron has made the request to increase page views again because Surf isn't interested in seeing the other side of this discussion, just throwing fuel on it.
 
You're right if #1 is poorly designed and you repeat too much on #4. But if #1 is well designed and have a reasonable number of try then what's wrong with that method since trend do exist (say a very few can be spotted and most of them are in hindsight and therefore #1 & #4 are critical for success). It's just a matter of how to spot it correctly (the toughest step) and have enough confident to sit tight.

Quote from marketsurfer:


1) Spot trend
2) Join trend
3) Place strategic stop order (ARE YOU READING THIS ONE SURF???)
4) If stopped, try again
5) if not stopped, ride trend until rich


sounds like a good way to get chopped to bits.

surf
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top