Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

[monty21]

Trends make perfect sense...

Stocks go up when cash flow is going into the market. This occurs when economy is consistently growing (quarterly) and interest rates are kept low enough to ensure that corporations can increase revenue.

Stocks go down when the cash flow is taken out of the market.

Essentially for the longer-term traders, the concept is very simple... either cash is put into the stock market or taken out. All the moves in between are "noise". Unfortunately, we all here at ET try to trade the noise as if we have some "edge" in predicting it. What the hell is 5 points in S&P 500? We cannot time that move perfectly. There are thousands of variables influencing the mkt. Even if we are right with getting 5 points on our trade, how did we know it was correct because it was our thesis (i.e. support at 830). In reality, the rise in oil could've been responsible for the move, and the support at 830 had nothing to do with it.

Sometimes the mkt just goes sideways... as in 2009... its a period where some people are still taking money out of the market and others are putting it back in. When one side dominates the other, the trend will reemerge.

Simple laws of Supply/Demand

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

sounds like a good way to get chopped to bits.

there are 2 ways to trade--- trade to win or trade to survive. your method is trade to survive--- wont ever get anywhere in the long term.

surf

Surf seriously, you have zero clue on how to trade successfully/what it takes. Your calls are absolutely horrendous. You rip on the most successful strategies. You worship traders who have blown up and are huge failures.

You are a nice guy who writes cute little articles and worships anyone in the trading world who gives you the time of day. I guarantee if a guy like Dunn or JWH sat down with you and gave you an interview, you would say trend followers are the best.

What the hell do you know about what it takes to trade. You are a writer who blabs about trading. Until you are in the battle each day your opinion really doesnt carrry any weight. It must be nice to cheer from the cheap seats in the stadium while others actually play the game for a living.

 

[EPrado]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Wow. Really? Perhaps you could explain your math to me. Taking the BEST numbers in your post, using 1,000 contracts for a 3-tick profit per day trading the ES, only gets me a 5-figure $37,500 profit before commissions. How did you arrive at the 6 figures? Is there perhaps some kind of "synergy" thing going on that I need to know about? Please advise.

Don't give this clown the time of day. He trades 100 lots on a simulator.

 

[marketsurfer]

how many moves or series of moves in one direction increase the chance of the next move being in the same direction?

this is something that is easily tested.

unfortunately, for trend followers, there is no number of moves that increase probabilities of the next move being in same direction.

therefore, the concept of trend following is fatally flawedregardless of the anecdotal claims. without being able to quantify this most simple question, entering into a trend has no edge over random entry.

prove me wrong.


surf

 

[Red_Ink_inc]

Quote from marketsurfer:

therefore, the concept of trend following is fatally flawedregardless of the anecdotal claims. without being able to quantify this most simple question, entering into a trend has no edge over random entry.

prove me wrong.


surf

Three years of daily results posted on this very site. Trend following combined with sensible money management (this is where you fail, like your horrendous short of CROX where you got blown out on a chart that looks like a ski slope)) is the way to a life without a paycheque signed by somone else.

It has been proven but if you're too blind to see what's in front of you. There is no hope for you. You speak like an expert on topics you know nothing about. You will now write an obtuse response ignoring all the evidence and once again flaunt your ignorance and I will simply thank you for your (now my) money.

 

[Businessman]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from marketsurfer:

...failed miserably by picking the wrong direction...

...tremendous drawdowns, just like buy/sell and hope...some make it, most don't...
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Quote from Thunderdog:

Sounds like your Surf Report journal.

Sounds more like Surfers mate: Vic Niederhoffer..

 

[Red_Ink_inc]

Quote from marketsurfer:

sounds like a good way to get chopped to bits.

there are 2 ways to trade--- trade to win or trade to survive. your method is trade to survive--- wont ever get anywhere in the long term.

surf

Yeah, your method of random entries against the trend with zero money management is much better. I guess that's why you trade for a living.

Your analogy is simply retarded. If you have any live accounts I kindly suggest you close them at once. Now be a "Goodboy" and stick to topics you know about like changing the ribbon on your typewriter.


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[EPrado]

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

Yeah, your method of random entries against the trend with zero money management is much better. I guess that's why you trade for a living.

Your analogy is simply retarded. If you have any live accounts I kindly suggest you close them at once. Now be a "Goodboy" and stick to topics you know about like changing the ribbon on your typewriter.


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Come on, shorting a stock (WFC) and giving it a stop out of 6 bucks (roughly 35%), then claiming you nailed it when it goes 60 cents in your favor is a great strategy.

If some REAL trader with some kind of REAL trading background wants to argue the pros and cons of trendfollowing with me , great. But Surf does not meet the criteria for this.

Ask him about his strategy that him and his "team" come up with. He won't tell you, because he has no real strategy. He fades stocks/mkts that are trending one way. He gets crushed almost everytime. His horrendous call in CROX is basically a playbook for his calls. Step in front of a freight train and get taken out. Unlike trend following types who waited for CROX to show it's hand on the way down. While they didn't pick a top like Surf attempted, they cleaned up on the way down while Surf got clobbered. He is like that one tick pony Neiderhoffer who he worships.

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

how many moves or series of moves in one direction increase the chance of the next move being in the same direction?

this is something that is easily tested.

unfortunately, for trend followers, there is no number of moves that increase probabilities of the next move being in same direction.

therefore, the concept of trend following is fatally flawedregardless of the anecdotal claims. without being able to quantify this most simple question, entering into a trend has no edge over random entry.

prove me wrong.


surf

You prove yourself wrong everytime you have a SURF ALERT. You look for mean reversion in markets that are trending. Fastest way to the poor house.

There ya go with the VN crap. Test this, test that. That strategy worked great for good ol' VN the account decimator. Did VN test his selling puts strategy ? Must have been some results to blow up twice.


Surf look at how all these conversations end up. Take me out of the equation. You get 10 other guys on here who are real traders saying the crap you spew is absolutely ridiculous. Then you have one guy who trades 100 lots on a simulator agreeing with you. This same guy doesn't even know what a stop is.

You are a pair of clown shoes surf.

 

[makloda]

Quote from marketsurfer:therefore, the concept of trend following is fatally flawedregardless of the anecdotal claims. without being able to quantify this most simple question, entering into a trend has no edge over random entry.

prove me wrong.


surf

Why would anyone bother arguing with you at this point? Myself and others "tried" proving you wrong in the previous 18 threads with research publications and long term real world track records. You never responded and simply walked away from the threads. You have obviously no interest in discussing facts.

Then you come back a couple months later and claim nobody can dispute your claims.

surf, get a life.