Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

short&naked · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from asap:

any serious professional knows that "trend following" is a not viable strategy in the long run because trends only exist in hindsight.

on the other hand, any so-called trend following system, would have to perform well in the present due to the impressive swings in the market.

now, it appears not only the fund is based on a false premise but rather it also fails miserably exploiting it when the conditions are favorable to do so.

:eek:

The only way to bag a profit is to play a trend. So, you are saying that all traders in the long run are bound to lose. Why then waste your time on this forum?

operator · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

It's all fairly simple:

1) Spot trend
2) Join trend
3) Place strategic stop order (ARE YOU READING THIS ONE SURF???)
4) If stopped, try again
5) if not stopped, ride trend until rich

It's all fairly simple:

1. Spot trend
2. Try to pick top or bottom
3. No stop
4. Average in when wrong
5. Ride trend until you blow account up

marketsurfer · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from short&naked:

The only way to bag a profit is to play a trend. So, you are saying that all traders in the long run are bound to lose. Why then waste your time on this forum?

yes, of course after entry, when directionally trading, the trade has to go your direction to profit. the issue is the relevance of the past trend--even ed seykota agrees--- trends only exist in the past and knowing the past trend has nothing to do with success--although for the non statistically but visually inclined it sure seems that way. herein lays the ultimate delusion of the market....

surf

marketsurfer · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

Frightening? More like heartwarming.

Sometimes I wonder how a twit like myself can extract dough from the market as efficiently as I seem to, then I read threads like this one and it all makes sense. There is an awful lot of dumb money out there.

The guys who say you can't make money following trends couldn't make money selling a heater to an Eskimo.

It's all fairly simple:

1) Spot trend
2) Join trend
3) Place strategic stop order (ARE YOU READING THIS ONE SURF???)
4) If stopped, try again
5) if not stopped, ride trend until rich

sounds like a good way to get chopped to bits.

there are 2 ways to trade--- trade to win or trade to survive. your method is trade to survive--- wont ever get anywhere in the long term.

surf

marketsurfer · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from asap:

LMAO

trend following finally gets the recognition it always deserved.

<object width="640" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LiE1VgWdcQM&hl=en&fs=1&cB]

Perfect--if people only knew how BIG the whipsaws really are--- big enough for the guy to write a song about it....

surf

operator · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, of course after entry, when directionally trading, the trade has to go your direction to profit. the issue is the relevance of the past trend--even ed seykota agrees--- trends only exist in the past and knowing the past trend has nothing to do with success--although for the non statistically but visually inclined it sure seems that way. herein lays the ultimate delusion of the market....

surf

surf, why don't you explain a little more about how you trade? Do you just trade looking for countertrends?

marketsurfer · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from operator:

surf, why don't you explain a little more about how you trade? Do you just trade looking for countertrends?

its a combination of factors of which TA does play a small role. entry can be in same direction depending on other factors, or against the prevailing movement. i don't want to discuss the details. thanks, surf

Thunderdog · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from asap:

...there are many people making 6-figures per day trading the ES...they trade 100-1000 lots and average 1 or 3 ticks per day...

Wow. Really? Perhaps you could explain your math to me. Taking the BEST numbers in your post, using 1,000 contracts for a 3-tick profit per day trading the ES, only gets me a 5-figure $37,500 profit before commissions. How did you arrive at the 6 figures? Is there perhaps some kind of "synergy" thing going on that I need to know about? Please advise.

operator · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from marketsurfer:

its a combination of factors of which TA does play a small role. entry can be in same direction depending on other factors, or against the prevailing movement. i don't want to discuss the details. thanks, surf

Ok, that sounds good. Inter-market analysis, correlation trading, etc...As you know there a many ways to make money in the market.

marketsurfer · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from operator:

Ok, that sounds good. Inter-market analysis, correlation trading, etc...As you know there a many ways to make money in the market.

yes, i agree.

best, surf