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Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
Hey Surf, you must be getting bored to poke this sleeping animal again.
I think I've found a way that you and I can come together a bit on this subject but I won't guarantee it. Here goes:
Trends only exist in hindsite.
Trends, alone, aren't consistently or successfully tradeable.
Trends are hindsite chart specific.
Trends only exist on hindsite charts and can not exist in overall markets.
Successfully trading charts must encompass more information other than simple trending information.
Do you agree or at least understand these points so far?
I think I've found a way that you and I can come together a bit on this subject but I won't guarantee it. Here goes:
Trends only exist in hindsite.
Trends, alone, aren't consistently or successfully tradeable.
Trends are hindsite chart specific.
Trends only exist on hindsite charts and can not exist in overall markets.
Successfully trading charts must encompass more information other than simple trending information.
Do you agree or at least understand these points so far?
Quote from asap:
probably the god you worship before entering your trend following wishful thinking trades.
it all right kid. but at some point you need to cut back on your paternal figure needs, otherwise you wont be successful.
Kid ? Too funny.
In all seriousness. How long have you been trading ? When did you start ?
This is great, I am arguing with some person who trades 100 lots on a simulator. Too funny.
asap
Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 566
03-28-09 12:35 PM
sometimes i make $100k in one day on the NQ using a sim account at IB, trading 100 lots. i can explain how i do it but it is totally irrelevant because it has no bearing whatsoever with reality.
asap
Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 566
03-28-09 12:35 PM
sometimes i make $100k in one day on the NQ using a sim account at IB, trading 100 lots. i can explain how i do it but it is totally irrelevant because it has no bearing whatsoever with reality.
Quote from EPrado:
This is great, I am arguing with some person who trades 100 lots on a simulator. Too funny.
there you go jumping the conclusions again. like when you spot that trend that inevitably triggers your stop loss. i understand the sourness but you should improve your social skills kid if you want to learn from others.
----------
<b>reposting the mis-quoted text above.</b>
-----------
sometimes i make $100k in one day on the NQ using a sim account at IB, trading 100 lots. i can explain how i do it but it is totally irrelevant because it has no bearing whatsoever with reality.
this is just to say these typical "anek threads" are counterproductive and contribute to mislead poor newbies into believing in dangerous fantasies, which is morally questionable.
in addition, the trading process described by the OP does not offer any kind of "edge" as the instrument traded is linear, hence there's no difference in the trade odds from a statistical standpoint, to either scale it or not, as the payoff for the trade is set in stone from the beginning. i am not sure if everybody grasps that only when trading non-linear instruments, such as options, a scaling methodology will contribute to improve/reduce the odds, given the nature of options pricing along the gamma curve.
also, the comments by the OP "how can I lose with this trade? -- i scale out and then move my stop to BE" are outright pathetic. the OP can lose a lot with this strategy, especially trading the size he claims and even with one lot, the net result would scratch profitability in the long run only with all stars aligned. now trying to convince everybody this is some sort of holy grail is either borderline criminal or just utter ignorance.
there are many people making 6-figures per day trading the ES (not the NQ, as the OP claims). they trade 100-1000 lots and average 1 or 3 ticks per day (not 40-80 ticks as the OP claims). most of these are professionally run algos. i guarantee you that none of the people behind them will try to convince us here on ET that they make such amount of money because that would be a pointless waste of time. after all, they are in the business of making money professionally, not in the business of misleading gullible sheep.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2367126#post2367126
Congrats. I thought Surf would end up making the dumbest post of the thread, but the honor goes to you hands down.Quote from asap:
any serious professional knows that "trend following" is a not viable strategy in the long run because trends only exist in hindsight.
on the other hand, any so-called trend following system, would have to perform well in the present due to the impressive swings in the market.
now, it appears not only the fund is based on a false premise but rather it also fails miserably exploiting it when the conditions are favorable to do so.
:eek:
Quote from EPrado:
Kind of expect this crap from a guy like Surf. It's frightening to think that a guy like Surf actually guides people on where to invest their money.
Frightening? More like heartwarming.
Sometimes I wonder how a twit like myself can extract dough from the market as efficiently as I seem to, then I read threads like this one and it all makes sense. There is an awful lot of dumb money out there.
The guys who say you can't make money following trends couldn't make money selling a heater to an Eskimo.
It's all fairly simple:
1) Spot trend
2) Join trend
3) Place strategic stop order (ARE YOU READING THIS ONE SURF???)
4) If stopped, try again
5) if not stopped, ride trend until rich
Quote from asap:
there you go jumping the conclusions again. like when you spot that trend that inevitably triggers your stop loss. i understand the sourness but you should improve your social skills kid if you want to learn from others.
----------
<b>reposting the mis-quoted text above.</b>
-----------
sometimes i make $100k in one day on the NQ using a sim account at IB, trading 100 lots. i can explain how i do it but it is totally irrelevant because it has no bearing whatsoever with reality.
this is just to say these typical "anek threads" are counterproductive and contribute to mislead poor newbies into believing in dangerous fantasies, which is morally questionable.
in addition, the trading process described by the OP does not offer any kind of "edge" as the instrument traded is linear, hence there's no difference in the trade odds from a statistical standpoint, to either scale it or not, as the payoff for the trade is set in stone from the beginning. i am not sure if everybody grasps that only when trading non-linear instruments, such as options, a scaling methodology will contribute to improve/reduce the odds, given the nature of options pricing along the gamma curve.
also, the comments by the OP "how can I lose with this trade? -- i scale out and then move my stop to BE" are outright pathetic. the OP can lose a lot with this strategy, especially trading the size he claims and even with one lot, the net result would scratch profitability in the long run only with all stars aligned. now trying to convince everybody this is some sort of holy grail is either borderline criminal or just utter ignorance.
there are many people making 6-figures per day trading the ES (not the NQ, as the OP claims). they trade 100-1000 lots and average 1 or 3 ticks per day (not 40-80 ticks as the OP claims). most of these are professionally run algos. i guarantee you that none of the people behind them will try to convince us here on ET that they make such amount of money because that would be a pointless waste of time. after all, they are in the business of making money professionally, not in the business of misleading gullible sheep.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2367126#post2367126
Please answer my original question. How long have you been trading ?
Seeing how you are a simulator guy and danced around the question I would guess kind of new.
I just think it is kind of humorous someone like yourself calling me a kid.
So how long have you been trading ?
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Frightening? More like heartwarming.
Sometimes I wonder how a twit like myself can extract dough from the market as efficiently as I seem to, then I read threads like this one and it all makes sense. There is an awful lot of dumb money out there.
The guys who say you can't make money following trends couldn't make money selling a heater to an Eskimo.
It's all fairly simple:
1) Spot trend
2) Join trend
3) Place strategic stop order (ARE YOU READING THIS ONE SURF???)
4) If stopped, try again
5) if not stopped, ride trend until rich
Don't worry. While your strategy is an excellent one, guys like Surf will never change. He has convinced himself that a proven strategy that works isn't profitable. Like you said, we need guys like him on the other side of our trades.