Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

[EPrado]

Quote from asiaprop:

;-) (so you read it too, I felt what a time I wasted)

I read parts of it. It's tough to read a book by a guy with a huge ego problem who couldn't trade his way out of a paper bag and blown out completely twice with friends/outside money.


Like reading a book by Jeffery Dahmer's parents on how to raise a well behaved child.

 

[operator]

Quote from EPrado:

Keep chasing those nickels in front of steamroller

:eek:

 

[EPrado]

Quote from asiaprop:

i love your humor. Must check out some of your other posts ;-)

Seriously, which other strategy has beaten trend following over the past 20 years aside some niche players (eg some who understand how to "arb" the option markets) that end up with a more attractive risk/reward profile?

My point exactly. The guys who have survived in the trading world over the long run are trend folllowing types. While cost averaging/fading/mean reversion strategies do work when the right people use them, it has also ending trading careers/destroyed accounts very quickly.

I know a guy who has been trading in the pits in Chicago for years. Luckily he has a ton of family money. He absolutely loves buying as the position goes against him. Nothing makes him more happy than buying SP's at 840, 835, 830, and selling them all at 835.25 for a profit. Like he says......it's a strategy that works....until it doesnt.


He usually blows out his account twice a year and has to re-load.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from asiaprop:

i love your humor. Must check out some of your other posts ;-)

Seriously, which other strategy has beaten trend following over the past 20 years aside some niche players (eg some who understand how to "arb" the option markets) that end up with a more attractive risk/reward profile?

yes, to a point. however, that does not make it a true edge or something that is applicable to retail traders.

i know from direct experience that option arb/marketmaking strategies blew away trend following in 2008 and continues to do so in 2009.

remember, the public are trend followers by default. we all know happens to the public....

surf

 

[operator]

Quote from marketsurfer:

the public are trend followers by default. we all know happens to the public...

The public has a long bias. I would not through them in with the trend followers traders/managers....

 

[asap]

Quote from asiaprop:

what a poor argument.

Why in hindsight? They generated money for their investors. Most funds permitted their investors to have taken their money and live a happy life at any time. What problem do you have with that?

Mean reversion? Just because you are the oldest and were born being above average intelligent your younger sister must be very dumb, mean reversion. A pair of stocks is out 3 standard deviations from its long term mean, they must surely come back so go and put on the trade no other questions asked...come on such lame way of thinking has bankrupted so many guys.

the fact that a certain stock or index price have been "trending" in the past doesn't mean it will "trend" in the future.

for instance, are you selling the SPX "negative trend" that initiated last fall? or are you buying the SPX "positive trend" that started last month? you dont know the right answer.

that's because trends only exist in hindsight.

 

[operator]

Quote from asap:

for instance, are you selling the SPX "negative trend" that initiated last fall? or are you buying the SPX "positive trend" that started last month? you dont know the right answer.

Depends on what fractal you are trading...

Monthly you might still be short and daily you might be long....

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, to a point. however, that does not make it a true edge or something that is applicable to retail traders.

i know from direct experience that option arb/marketmaking strategies blew away trend following in 2008 and continues to do so in 2009.

remember, the public are trend followers by default. we all know happens to the public....

surf

Why do you always use "retail traders" as your crutch in the argument. Why can't a retail trader use a trend following strategy?


What kind of money do these option arb guys manage? What were their returns in 2008?


The public are not trend followers at all. If so why did the public get destroyed in 2008, and trend followers have huge gains?

The public goes long, rarely if ever short. Trend followers are not long or short biased.

Surf you continue to amaze me with how little you know. You should be on Letterman. They can have a segment "The man who can talk out of his ass".

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from asap:

the fact that a certain stock or index price have been "trending" in the past doesn't mean it will "trend" in the future.

for instance, are you selling the SPX "negative trend" that initiated last fall? or are you buying the SPX "positive trend" that started last month? you dont know the right answer.

that's because trends only exist in hindsight.

exactly.

you need to understand, however, that trend traders on elite never lose and all have insight into the future.

regards, surf

 

[EPrado]

Quote from asap:

the fact that a certain stock or index price have been "trending" in the past doesn't mean it will "trend" in the future.

for instance, are you selling the SPX "negative trend" that initiated last fall? or are you buying the SPX "positive trend" that started last month? you dont know the right answer.

that's because trends only exist in hindsight.

We have an early nomination for dumbest post of 2009.

Seriously, do you read this stuff before you post on here.