Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

asap · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from EPrado:

OH MY GOD !!!!!!!

THESES TWO TREND FOLLOWING FUNDS ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ITS ARMAGEDDON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what's this?

the royal guard of the EMA50,200 cross holy grail?

EPrado · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from marketsurfer:

buying lows and selling highs is how fortunes are made.

surf

Yeah...a lot of fortunes were made buying lows last year in the SP.

You wouldn't know a fortune if it came up to you and smacked you in the face with a copy of Education of a Speculator.

EPrado · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from marketsurfer:

one would need to know how many "trend following" funds failed miserably by picking the wrong direction before surviorship biased statements like this make any sense.

these guys have have tremendous drawdowns, just like buy/sell and hope ( which is exactly what trend following is) --- some make it, most don't. extrapolating that its a viable strategy for traders to use based on a few successes is a stretch to say the least.

surf

Please show me a chart of Dunn Capital's WMA fund over the last 20 yrs + and explain to me how has failed miserably.

It's comedy seeing you talk about trading and what works when you have not a clue how to trade.

asiaprop · Apr 15, 2009

what a poor argument.

Why in hindsight? They generated money for their investors. Most funds permitted their investors to have taken their money and live a happy life at any time. What problem do you have with that?

Mean reversion? Just because you are the oldest and were born being above average intelligent your younger sister must be very dumb, mean reversion. A pair of stocks is out 3 standard deviations from its long term mean, they must surely come back so go and put on the trade no other questions asked...come on such lame way of thinking has bankrupted so many guys.

Quote from asap:

like i said it only works in hindsight.

you dont know whether these same funds will blow up in the next decade. in fact, chances are they will since they have done so well in the past and in the long run every single strategy reverts to its mean.

Clubber Lang · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from marketsurfer:

buying lows and selling highs is how fortunes are made.

Like when you called "The Bottom" last year only to have the market freefall 2500 points over the next month?

Turn off the trading simulator and get back to your job.

EPrado · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from asap:

what's this?

the royal guard of the EMA50,200 cross holy grail?

Nah. I dont trade using moving averages. But if it works for those who do then great.

I just laugh at idiots who say trend following doesnt work. They are by far the most sucessful group over the long run. (Trend followers that is.....not the idiots).

Keep chasing those nickels in front of steamrollers like Neiderhoffer did. A tremendous strategy...really.

asiaprop · Apr 15, 2009

;-) (so you read it too, I felt what a time I wasted)

Quote from EPrado:

Yeah...a lot of fortunes were made buying lows last year in the SP.

You wouldn't know a fortune if it came up to you and smacked you in the face with a copy of Education of a Speculator.

EPrado · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from asiaprop:

what a poor argument.

Why in hindsight? They generated money for their investors. Most funds permitted their investors to have taken their money and live a happy life at any time. What problem do you have with that?

Mean reversion? Just because you are the oldest and were born being above average intelligent your younger sister must be very dumb, mean reversion. A pair of stocks is out 3 standard deviations from its long term mean, they must surely come back so go and put on the trade no other questions asked...come on such lame way of thinking has bankrupted so many guys.

asiaprop you obviously don't have a time machine that goes into the future like this guy does. I mean really, how can one base how good a fund is by past performance ?

EPrado · Apr 15, 2009

Quote from Clubber Lang:

Like when you called "The Bottom" last year only to have the market freefall 2500 points over the next month?

Turn off the trading simulator and get back to your job.

Surf is on a simulator? You are giving him way too much credit.

asiaprop · Apr 15, 2009

i love your humor. Must check out some of your other posts ;-)

Seriously, which other strategy has beaten trend following over the past 20 years aside some niche players (eg some who understand how to "arb" the option markets) that end up with a more attractive risk/reward profile?

Quote from EPrado:

Nah. I dont trade using moving averages. But if it works for those who do then great.

I just laugh at idiots who say trend following doesnt work. They are by far the most sucessful group over the long run. (Trend followers that is.....not the idiots).

Keep chasing those nickels in front of steamrollers like Neiderhoffer did. A tremendous strategy...really.