Trend Following Research

Quote from Trend Following:

Why does it matter what causes a trend?
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Identifying the cause of a trend can help a trade intuitively assess the sustainability of the trend. Combine it with a technical/ price action set-up, and you've got a triple threat trade.

I also feel that having a grasp on the fundamentals of a trend can enable one to hold on to their position rather than letting greed instigate early profit taking.
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Are you another one of these Gann/Elliott/cycles/prediction characters?
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i just use common sense,sun rises in the east,sets in the west,there seems to be patterns to things
 
Quote from ArbitRAGE:

Identifying the cause of a trend can help a trade intuitively assess the sustainability of the trend.
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And how can you objectively test the effectiveness of this intuitive method? You can't.

Systematic, mechanic trend-followers intentionally disregard reasons and causes for a price breakout and simply bet on that it will continue in the initial direction. They'll be wrong often, for a small loss. And every once in a while they hit a home run.
 
Quote from SnakeEYE:

:D

Are you serious?

How can you follow it then:confused: :confused: :confused:
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Most of TA is about following trends without having a clue what causes them. Measuring something and understanding what causes it are two different things.
 
Quote from SnakeEYE:

:D

Are you serious?

How can you follow it then:confused: :confused: :confused:
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I understand you are confused.

Quote from Butterball:

Systematic, mechanic trend-followers intentionally disregard reasons and causes for a price breakout and simply bet on that it will continue in the initial direction. They'll be wrong often, for a small loss. And every once in a while they hit a home run.
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Thanks.

Quote from kut2k2:

Most of TA is about following trends without having a clue what causes them. Measuring something and understanding what causes it are two different things.
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Thanks.
 
Quote from Butterball:

And how can you objectively test the effectiveness of this intuitive method? You can't.

Systematic, mechanic trend-followers intentionally disregard reasons and causes for a price breakout and simply bet on that it will continue in the initial direction. They'll be wrong often, for a small loss. And every once in a while they hit a home run.
More...

You can create a macro model or do a top down apporach. I do agree that fundamentals become pretty useless if one focuses on short term time frames though. So if your holding periods are a few days fundamentals wil probably be of no use.
 
Quote from Butterball:

And how can you objectively test the effectiveness of this intuitive method? You can't.
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Quote from slavduja:

You can create a macro model or do a top down apporach.
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Not sure what that means...

You can't test, prove or disprove 'intuitive' whatever. It can change with the blowing wind...
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Not sure what that means...

You can't test, prove or disprove 'intuitive' whatever. It can change with the blowing wind...
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With all due respect Mr. Covel...

Trend following works as proven by many, but so do many other things. Soros has outperformed all trend followers and that's just one example.
Do they trade intuitively, possibly, but they sure know their fundamentals and macroeconomics.
 
Quote from slavduja:

With all due respect Mr. Covel...

Trend following works as proven by many, but so do many other things. Soros has outperformed all trend followers and that's just one example.
Do they trade intuitively, possibly, but they sure know their fundamentals and macroeconomics.
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Well said.
 
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