Trend Following Research

If anyone listens to this man they deserve to lose every last penny in their possession.



Quote from jack hershey:

It is very important to recognize the mistakes in Seykota's statement.

The main clues are found in the Behavioral Finance piece just below the Introduction on the home page of Behavioral Finance.

It is really important to NOT do trend following and do trend monitoring and Analysis. It this effort, time is NOt the independent variable. What IS the independent variable is "events". Of the two classes, one has duration in terms of time; the other does not.

Events form trends. Events follow a specific invariant order of events.

Thus, through trend monitoring and analysis you know three things:

1. What is happening in the Present;

2. What is next in the order of events; and

3. How fast (in time) events are changing.

I don't care about others views nor judge those people because I practice trend monitoring and analysis well beyond the limits of the belief systems of any on ET (vendors, like Covel or retailers). Trend following never was my practice; my orientation is extracting the market's offer.

When the event named "continuing" is going on (measurably) I hold to take the full offer from the market; when the event named "change" has its brief moment (measurably), I reverse to be on the correct side of the market's upcoming "continuing". All events has prescribed pre and post measurable characteristics.

Hence I espouse a pattern: B2B 2R 2B for long profit segments and R2R 2B 2R for short profit segments.

Covel correctly calls this "gibberish" and he calls Seykota precise, etc. because he has a permanent problem. I do not have Covel's or others' problem(s).

Trend following "research" is a mistaken quest.

As I have said before, I have no interest in whether a person likes me or my chosen trading persuasion. What I do proves Seykota and Covel and others with like views are incorrect in their views.
More...
 
Quote from slavduja:

I like you jack, but that's a WILD statement, if you really think trend following is shit, why you on this thread??
More...

Because someone in here has said quite clearly that his thinking/writing is convoluted gibberish...and he needs to defend the crazy he spews.
 
Quote from slavduja:

Zeno's arrow paradox

dx = v * dt

integrating both sides:

S dx = S v*dt
x = S v*dt

If the trend is composed of current price, and current price has no trend because its one point in time by itself , than we conclude each price exists by itself in a fixed interval of time (which can be infinitely small) and therefore trends do not exist.--(lol)

By comparing the current price to the price point in the past we can determine trends..

Current price > Reference = Up trend
Current price < Reference = Down Trend

it takes 2 price points to determine the trend (duh)

kut2k is right , Seykota over-philosophies at times...
More...


With all due respect, Seykota's wisdom was very clear and concise. The other stuff above is over done.


Quote from slavduja:

I dunno why I even posted this, what the heck is the point?, we should instead be posting some Donchian studies or something.

Mr Covel, do you have any papers on Donchian?, I have tried to search online for his letters etc, but only found his rules. I am sure you got some stuff on the father of trend following.
newsletter Commodity Trend Timing?
articles Trend Following Methods in Commodity Price Analysis.?
More...

Yes, I have more from Donchian.
 
Quote from Trend Following:

With all due respect, Seykota's wisdom was very clear and concise. The other stuff above is over done.




Yes, I have more from Donchian.
More...

Mr Covel, I just finished watching BROKE, and I enjoyed it. Were you interviewing Jim Rogers in Singapore?? I am glad that you interviewed poker players and some fundamentalists like Mr. Rogers.
Also Seykota is one of my favorite traders, which is why I asked you about him and Hite. I just personally don't like to talk nonsense, but its hard to avoid on ET. Anyways if you could post some Donchian stuff that would be AWESOME!

thanks
 
Despite our trading philosophical differences, Covel produces great information for all traders and the common man. Unlike the yeoman style "my work benefits"greater good" of the aliases who haunt this site, Covel is a capitalist trader in the honorable randian style. Bravo!
 
Quote from slavduja:

http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/psychology-of-successful-investing.pdf




What are R2R and 2B stand for??





I like you jack, but that's a WILD statement, if you really think trend following is shit, why you on this thread??
Yah sure introducing fundamentals and ROC and volume analysis could probably enhance Pure Price action trend following system, but since TA was first practiced Trend Following has consistently produced good results.


The most fundamental
bias, therefore, is the status quo bias (also known as conservatism).
Any living person may ruminate: I have
survived thus far, everything that I have already experienced cannot be fatal
because I am alive. For example, I have never eaten that berry before, and
I have survived, so why should I risk eating it now?

From the Paper
Why try and reinvent the wheel?or fix that which is not broken??
I aint smart enough to do that so I look for an ANCHOR to build on. Trend following is one of those anchors

Time to go out its Friday night and I am in my mid 20s, why stay home?? right

Cao
More...
More...

I can certainly refrain from posting here in this thread or any other you( or any others) point out where my posts make them fel uncomfortable about anyhing (beliefs, ETC.

In a short this iR2R is the first move which contsists of a peak to trough (at former rtl) and going to a peak R stand for Red and 2 stends for to (as in going to.) Both the peaks are used to form, respectively, the points 1 and 2 of the trend channel that is bein monitored and analyzed. Or in your trerms the forming anchor you will fine as the trend goes through its ending third subfractal move (dominant). 2B stands for the swecond move (non dominant from point 2 to point 3, at which time the RTL is formed going from point 1 to point 3 (sloping downward or horizontal). From point 2 you draw a parallelogram. Both lines eaxtend into the future where the FTT occurs between the two lines. then the overlap with the nexat trend begins and the FTT is the new point 1 of the new trend parallelogram.

Thank you for your reply and disrection to me to discontinue posting in this thread.
More...
More...
 
Quote from slavduja:

Mr Covel, I just finished watching BROKE, and I enjoyed it. Were you interviewing Jim Rogers in Singapore??
More...

Met with Rogers in Singapore.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Despite our trading philosophical differences, Covel produces great information for all traders and the common man. Unlike the yeoman style "my work benefits"greater good" of the aliases who haunt this site, Covel is a capitalist trader in the honorable randian style. Bravo!
More...

ET would be an infinitely more valuable resource if anonymity disappeared. Yes, there may be less readers (i.e. an RCG only exists anonymously), but the quality would rise.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

In a short this iR2R is the first move which contsists of a peak to trough (at former rtl) and going to a peak R stand for Red and 2 stends for to (as in going to.) Both the peaks are used to form, respectively, the points 1 and 2 of the trend channel that is bein monitored and analyzed. Or in your trerms the forming anchor you will fine as the trend goes through its ending third subfractal move (dominant). 2B stands for the swecond move (non dominant from point 2 to point 3, at which time the RTL is formed going from point 1 to point 3 (sloping downward or horizontal). From point 2 you draw a parallelogram. Both lines eaxtend into the future where the FTT occurs between the two lines. then the overlap with the nexat trend begins and the FTT is the new point 1 of the new trend parallelogram.
More...

This guy above and Montalbán -- fulfilling fantasy:

<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1x_QbVDlLbI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top