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Actually cut out the sentence at the end of my post where I preempted you and poked fun at the 'where are all the losers' line that was sure to follow my post. Did not know you, so did not say it. My gut was right...
Trend Following Research
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Actually cut out the sentence at the end of my post where I preempted you and poked fun at the 'where are all the losers' line that was sure to follow my post. Did not know you, so did not say it. My gut was right...
Uhhh, isn't that what the blustery Buckeye does all the time?
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I agree with you! (sarcasm) That list of traders, many with no affiliation, the vast majority of which have continuous track records month by month over 20+ years, thousands upon thousands of trades, were left over lucky monkeys just randomly banging the drums to mint cash...crazy how that can happen, eh?
If you really want to know how trend followers can fail, the best examples I have seen, see my 2nd book on the Turtles.
Personnally, I work with other expert traders who practise their methods continually. This would be a third route.
I met these people face to tace and built collegual associations based on our mutual benefits by exchanging information on markets we traded in common.
If I were not limited by your constraints, perhaps I would have profiled 10 or so of these people and their approaches. Some are authors and others do do presentations at varoius quality assembleages.
As for upper tiered peer sessions, often these people appear on panels but the panels are not academically sponsored. Sponsorship is limited to service organizations of the expert trading community.
Among these people I stand alone in that they are professionals and I am an amateur. I gained their respect by offering them advice based upon market trading experience. In a few cases I have participated with them as trading was done in public and in real time.
Nowadays I only appear at meetings where the participants are security cleared in advance and are qualified by their past performance as traders. This is done by a third party.
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If rules alone were the secret sauce...the author of that doc would have not seen his firm barred permanently by the CFTC. Take it a step further, that same author was last seen making a "sell call" of all world markets in Nov 10. Shortly thereafter he posted a video declaring Abraham Lincoln was not heterosexual (who knows why). As Charlie Sheen would say: "winning!"
This thread was supposed to be about trend following research. By posting the Dunn PDF today and linking to some top trend traders, perhaps people can further their education.
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Name one.
Security cleared? Because you are an assassination target?
Lescor is as credible as the salesmen you curry favor with. He's been here for years and I'm surprised you haven't noticed him. You are half correct -- edges based on structural inefficiencies are often short term and fleeting, as are edges in highly efficient, liquid instruments on short time frames. These do not define all edges.
I can attest to this as early in my prop trading career I relied on reading the tape to identify order handling by the specialist, which was simply a way of interpreting human behavior to identify liquidity shortages. Technology eroded that edge.
What Corey is doing, and has been doing for years, is not the kind of edge you're describing. It contradicts your assumption that the only edges that exist are random, which is derived from the EMH once in vogue in academia.
Edges based on identifying imbalances in crowd psychology or liquidity exploit a fundamental tenet of how markets move. Anyone who has been around the block can identify periods when the market <i>has</i> to move somewhere because the large traders cannot grab enough liquidity at the current price. They simply look and feel differently from the more random periods.
There are other anonymous traders out there who trade this day in and day out; some of us don't need to engage in this kind of intellectual hoop-jumping to know that the EMH is bunk. Choosing Corey as an example is simply the most credible for people who've been here a while.
Huge huge hit count on this thread. clearly a win win win for all involved--not to mention the great educational value so sorely missing from present day e'trader.
