Trend Following Is Not Predicting

By its very definition, I think trend following is more about reacting than it is about predicting.

On the other hand, stepping in front of an oncoming market, and betting that it will presently reverse before it has shown signs of doing so, is the very essence of predicting.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
By its very definition, I think trend following is more about reacting than it is about predicting.

On the other hand, stepping in front of an oncoming market, and betting that it will presently reverse before it has shown signs of doing so, is the very essence of predicting.
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Bingo. Trend followers follow trends, we don't predict trends. Nor predict anything else about the market.
 
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kut2k2 said:
Bingo. Trend followers follow trends, we don't predict trends. Nor predict anything else about the market.
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I don't agree with you. If you didn't believe that a trend would continue you wouldn't put a position on. Having a position on means you're making a forecast about what you think will happen to prices. A long position means you are forecasting prices will go up, and vice versa.

Not entirely sure what this debate is supposed to teach anyone. You eitheir believe in trend following, or you don't.

GAT (trend follower)
 
Every time you hit mouse button you are predicting cause if it was a sure thing, you would trade your entire account on each time you hit the button. Whether I plan on staying in a trade 15 seconds or 4.5 years, I am predicting positive monetary outcome. I don't know what most of those who trade are leaning on cause not everyone trades to make money. Ask 100 newbies why they want to become a trader and you going to hear most bizarre answers.
 
globalarbtrader said:
I don't agree with you. If you didn't believe that a trend would continue you wouldn't put a position on. Having a position on means you're making a forecast about what you think will happen to prices. A long position means you are forecasting prices will go up, and vice versa.

Not entirely sure what this debate is supposed to teach anyone. You eitheir believe in trend following, or you don't.

GAT (trend follower)
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Did you read the OP? Do you agree that there's a difference between anticipation and prediction?

Here's a great example of anticipation. I enter into a coin-flipping game where I know with absolute certainty that one side is favored over the other. The coin will not always come up on the favored --that would quickly end the game-- but it is not 50/50 and I know which side to bet. IF I always bet on the favored side, will I not be profitable in the long run despite many losses along the way? Is it really a prediction to say that smart betting will profit me long-term or is it for all intents and purposes a sure thing?

Trend following is the most successful trading strategy because it is almost always long-term profitable, despite many losses along the way. That's not predicting, that's just smart betting (always go with the most likely outcome (assuming it's greater than 50%)).
 
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Frederick Foresight said:
Don't sweat it, kut2k2. If some people are either too obstinate or obtuse to make the distinction, are they really worth the effort?
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Thanks but I'm not doing it for them. I'm doing for the new traders who get constantly misled by mooks insisting TF doesn't work or TF is just predicting (and therefore doesn't work). These founts of misinformation need to get slapped down now and then lest they overbreed and drown this place in mediocre thinking.
 
kut2k2 said:
Thanks but I'm not doing it for them. I'm doing for the new traders who get constantly misled by mooks insisting TF doesn't work or TF is just predicting (and therefore doesn't work). These founts of misinformation need to get slapped down now and then lest they overbreed and drown this place in mediocre thinking.
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I certainly didn't say trend following didn't work and think it is warranted more for newb's to only do what they test out to be true for them, but it is still predicting that it will work. I anticipate all my trades will make money and since most are against immediate trend, certainly don't put them on hoping to lose, but to me whether you use word "anticipate" or "predict" it is the same black and white cow. Trading is all about risk and that is a positive if you don't have an idea of controlling risk, no prediction there at all. But really, I see no difference at all of taking a trend trade or counter-trend trade if you hedge, but I certainly don't recommend to newb's to do counter-trend, they have tough enough figuring out trend trading.

Last time I checked "smart betting" was gambling.
 
The public are trend followers by default since they always buy new highs.

How well does the public do trading??

the cognative dissonance is profound among hindsight chartists.

surf
 
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