Trend Following Is Not Predicting

That's it in a nutshell. The trend follower determines if there is a trend NOW and if there is, he bets accordingly. Can he lose? Of course, but he is playing the odds: bet on the most likely outcome always and in the long run, he wins. Like betting with a biased coin.

When a trend follower trades, he isn't forecasting a damn thing, he is playing the odds.

I really can't put it any simpler than that. Either one gets it or one doesn't.
 
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marketsurfer said:
The public are trend followers by default since they always buy new highs.

How well does the public do trading??

the cognative dissonance is profound among hindsight chartists.

surf
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The public also has no sell discipline. Nor do they trade in a double-digit number of markets to diversify.

Go shut up and color.
 
" I personally believe that trading with the trend is virtually a sure thing, the biggest uncertainty being whether the trend follower is detecting true trend or false trend (chop). "

So funny! Great!

Is this part still called predicting " the biggest uncertainty being whether the trend follower is detecting true trend or false trend (chop). " ?
 
kut2k2 said:
That's it in a nutshell. The trend follower determines if there is a trend NOW and if there is, he bets accordingly. Can he lose? Of course, but he is playing the odds: bet on the most likely outcome always and in the long run, he wins. Like betting with a biased coin.

When a trend follower trades, he isn't forecasting a damn thing, he is playing the odds.

I really can't put it any simpler than that. Either one gets it or one doesn't.
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K2

There are a few trader disagreeing with you - that I respect

But on this one..., I'm going with you

===============

It's a mindset for me

I predict; - there an associated..., innate..., outcome - I could (and have/ do) easily find myself expecting to occur

An expectation if you will

Then when it doesn't happen.., I could be let down / disappointed / reluctant to continue / repeat my routine


I anticipate; - I roll with it - works out cool...., doesn't work out/ breaks down - cool

Either way - no hard feelings..., no reluctance to try again

I have / hold absolutely no expectation

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I've also found - with a mindset of predicting - I have a bias (and I can't shake it no matter what I do)

Whereas with a mindset of anticipation - price imparts its bias upon me (leaving me totally out of the picture)

Having said this; I don't trade trends (a trend / the trend/ whatever trend)

I exploit moves

============

For me - it all about a mindset;

One way..., it impedes the hell out of me

The other..., frees me up to trade - win..., lose..., or draw

jmho

RN
 
Up Trend = Higher Low + Higher High
Down Trend = Lower Low + Lower High

What more is there to argue about? So many wasted words for nothing, IMHO.
 
schizo said:
Up Trend = Higher Low + Higher High
Down Trend = Lower Low + Lower High

What more is there to argue about? So many wasted words for nothing, IMHO.
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FFS give it a rest. If you don't like the topic, just hit the back button instead of telling us what not to talk about.

If you want threads like this to stop, then tell people like marketsurfer to stop trash-talking trend following and other good stuff about trading. It's the trolls who start these thread battles so go yell at them.
 
kut2k2 said:
Trend following is the most successful trading strategy because it is almost always long-term profitable, despite many losses along the way. That's not predicting, that's just smart betting (always go with the most likely outcome (assuming it's greater than 50%)).
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True, if you know :
1 how to jump in a new trend
2 how to pyramid.

Alas, majority does the opposite, waiting too long before entering and investing heavily at the end of the trend.
So trend-following is always detrimental for the majority, and is smart-betting for few people.

CM
 
debitspread said:
That's a very deep and important observation.
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It's a dumb statement because it's the embodiment of a strawman argument. In essence, using a faintly related thing to argue or attempt to discredit something else entirely.

Just because Joe public doesn't know how to trade in the most effective fashion doesn't mean that's what trend following is about.
 
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