Quote from marketsurfer:
i just want to clarify my views on this topic. i am not saying, nor have i ever stated that one doesn't make money directionally trading by holding during a period of consistently higher or lower prices.
however, one can not determine with any odds greater than 50/50 just when to to enter a trade based on looking at past chart trends. therefore, knowing the supposed trend provides the trader no edge regardless of what is said. this isnt even mentioning the statistical studies ( flawed studies say the followers) that clearly indicate no edge or even a negative edge at times.
if i flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, am i in a "heads trend"?
regards,
surf
Quote from Thunderdog:
If you don't see how your Kim Jong-Il analogy was entirely misguided (and glib) in the context of this debate, then this exchange requires far more of an investment in time than I am capable of providing. However, I do wish you much trading success where price does not trend in your favor (since, reportedly, trends don't exist). Good luck with that.
See, that's the problem I have with you, surf. You are perfectly comfortable speaking for everyone when you say, "...one can not determine with any odds greater than 50/50 just when to to enter a trade based on looking at past chart trends." How you are able to capture the entirety of human experience and potential with your proclamations is really quite astounding.Quote from marketsurfer:
i just want to clarify my views on this topic. i am not saying, nor have i ever stated that one doesn't make money directionally trading by holding during a period of consistently higher or lower prices. of course this is how money is made, when trading directionally.
however, one can not determine with any odds greater than 50/50 just when to to enter a trade based on looking at past chart trends. therefore, knowing the supposed trend provides the trader no edge regardless of what is said. this isnt even mentioning the statistical studies ( flawed studies say the followers) that clearly indicate no edge or even a negative edge at times.
if i flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, am i in a "heads trend"?
regards,
surf
Quote from kidPWRtrader:
The market is not entirely a set of independent events so your coinflip analogy is completely off.
If I buy a stock that has gone up a lot in the past, does it mean that we increase our chance of going up in the future vs a stock that has only seen new lows? You can answer the question yourself.
.
Quote from annaland:
Just a suggestion:
There are obviously two âcampsâ of people, those who believe (I use this term loosely) and those who disbelieve in trends. Weâve all established that this difference exists, no need to deviate from the subject by persistently posting repetitive anti- or pro-trend arguments. Better yet, learn to agree to disagree and let Steve46 and ProfLogic (on his thread) continue whatever they sought out to do without the constant divergences.
Quote from Lamont_C:
It's not so much a matter of belief or disbelief as it is whether or not one trades (i.e., something other than part-time on paper).
Those who don't trade can believe or disbelieve whatever they like. Why not?
Those who do trade, on the other hand, know.
To say that trend does not exist labels one as a non-trader (or, again, as one who only dabbles). It's an idiotic statement, prompted largely by the individual's inability to trade trend.
LC