Trend Following for Idiots (Order Restored)

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Hot tempers...it's a global warming thing.

Thunderwoof, your posts are like THE wittiest on ET, thanks.

 

[steve46]

Here is another look at the 60 min chart

and you can see that significant buying came into the market

Unfortunately I missed this signal because I was putzing around posting....as if I need to learn that lesson again..

 

[steve46]

and the entry signal long on the 5 min chart

Profit target would be a test of 55

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

You're quite the performance artist.

subterfuge and deception are primary tenets of the market.

the microcosm of et reflects it quite well.....

nice trading, by the way, steve46.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from marketsurfer:

subterfuge and deception are primary tenets of the market.

the microcosm of et reflects it quite well.....

nice trading, by the way, steve46.

The big S and R work. Why not embrace it?

 

[kidPWRtrader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

tests show the opposite. may i suggest larry connors book of studies " How markets really work" to clarify this to you. i really reccomend this book, it's available on amazon.

for example-- returns actually increase after consecutive days of delines and decrease following consecutive days of market gains.

what studies are you familiar with that support your contention?

best wishes,

surf

Yes, Connors has a lot of system based on short term overbought/oversold mainly applied to futures markets as I remember. I'm not going to really argue on this point, just point out that I am talking about major trend and not 7 day reversal systems.

I do not have proof other than anecdotal evidence / what I have read from several traders/authors I respect.

I am rather young (at 19) and at this point really have little interest in academic papers regarding the market - I get enough efficient market bullshit at the university I go to.

I am interested in being a good trader and making money, not in seeing academics attempt to prove/disprove methods. As far as that goes, I don't even want to argue whether its possible to have an edge or not (through TA).

Check my post 1st page for a little insight into my edge. Is it money management that makes it work? Partially, but without a sound methodology you will only get so far.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from Thunderdog:

You're quite the performance artist.

More like fly on the wall.

The last 200 posts ive been talking up jack.

 

[achilles28]

But thats the way it goes.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from kidPWRtrader:

Yes, Connors has a lot of system based on short term overbought/oversold mainly applied to futures markets as I remember. I'm not going to really argue on this point, just point out that I am talking about major trend and not 7 day reversal systems.

I do not have proof other than anecdotal evidence / what I have read from several traders/authors I respect.

I am rather young (at 19) and at this point really have little interest in academic papers regarding the market - I get enough efficient market bullshit at the university I go to.

I am interested in being a good trader and making money, not in seeing academics attempt to prove/disprove methods. As far as that goes, I don't even want to argue whether its possible to have an edge or not (through TA).

Check my post 1st page for a little insight into my edge. Is it money management that makes it work? Partially, but without a sound methodology you will only get so far.

ok, good luck and best wishes to you!

surf

 

[epiktetos]

Quote from marketsurfer:

if i flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, am i in a "heads trend"?

Maybe surf

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/LudicFallacy.pdf

NNT (that is, me): Assume that a coin is fair, i.e. has equal probability of showing head or tails. I throw it and get heads 99 times. What are the odds of my getting tails at the next throw?

Dr. John: Trivial question. Of course one half since you are assuming 50% odds for each and independence between draws.

NNT: What do you say, Tony?

Fat Tony: I’d say no more than 1%, of course.

NNT: Why so? I gave you the initial assumption of a fair coin, meaning that it was 50% either way.

Fat Tony: You are either full of crap of a pure sucker to buy that “50 percent” business. The coin gotta be loaded. It can’t be a fair game. (Translation: It is far more likely that your assumptions about the fairness are wrong than the coin delivering 99 times heads in 99 throws).

NTT: But Dr. John said 50%.

Fat Tony (whispering in my ear): I know these guys with nerd examples from the bank days. They think way too slow. And they are too commoditized.