Quote from Trader666:
This is bogus because it ignores the buy and sell dates on your first attachment. Also, the market as a whole was pretty much up during this time period anyway.
10 of the 19 trades previously cited traded those stocks.
The batting order is set on a Sunday and the stocks are traded during the week as their turn arrives.
This is a consequence of using a Universe, lists where the volume leading price generates a signal and 30 minute charts that show the order of events of the pattern.
What is showing on clear station is a person's use of the batting order for a given week. It is what is called a portfolio characterization.
When people have many streams of capital the combination of these is called a portfolio.
Lets say you did a back test with money. There is a chance you would be using streams of capital as suggested in my writings. Lets say you had 500,000 dollars and the ability to code up an entry and exit strategy by going to a site and "taking" the code. Then you use a selection of stocks to choose from so your portfolio is full all the time and in some sort of balance. Say equal amounts of money or the amounts you used as the portfolio got out of balance over three years.
ou trade the 500,000 dollars using one kind of entry and a time out eaxit. 24,000 transactions occur of some unknown sort or other. Combined and averaged you do 24,000 wash trades where apparently the average cost of the trade and the profit or loss is about 18 bucks per transaction.
The portfolio had initially 500,000 dollars of stocks in it for 24,000 trades it gradually diminished to only 100,000 dollars left.
It can be compared to the current batting order. Over 6 weeks 27,000 dollars was used across four streams of capital. 1,000 dollars was made a week and in 6 weeks 19 trades were done the first being a wash.
The clearstation report is similar; it shows the batting order is being held and it is about 9% ahead for the holds on the batting order.
You do not know which of the three examples is significant or in what way each is significant.
Making 1,000 dollars a week for six weeks doing manually what a team of new traders does, is significant.
Dave's quant did a proportion to determine how 6 weeks making 6K becomes something in 52 weeks using alpha as the unknown. It may be possible to calculate alpha from three numbers in a proportion 6, 6, and 52 and alpha for a porfolio that keeps changing weekly. Alpha may be determined and then it can be used in a numerator and divided by 27 and multiplied by 100 to get a % profit per year.
For five years the exponent to use is 10 where the binomial value is 2. That is the increase in capital a beginner would get in five long years. One year lesss than how long you have been harranging ET with your daily posts.
Lets say 2 to the 12TH can be looked up in a book somewhere.
That is the six year resulting multiple of capital growth that you and Dave and others can't calculate over T666's 6 year life span here.
The guys are making a week's profits in a day on the ES trading part of the day. You naturally want to know how much capital is involved. It doesn't matter does it.
All traders start with the same amount to trade ES.
Dave suggested a trader could make 25 dollars in a day on some capital in ES. His Utube example made 100 dollars with a DD of 200 during the trade. 5 contracts were involved. So that is 20 dollars a contract right on the market for Dave's example. Since the trade was a "news" type scalp with no stop and a unrealized dd of twice the profit, we see what great trading is really like. Lets say all news is traded and all other edges are traded. How does it go for this type of trader? We find out by looking at 100 utubes and draw a conclusion that is iron clad proof.
I liked the UTube especially when the account was upside down by twice the realized profits and 200 bucks was then left on the table as shown on my chart I handed out this am.
For any method, in my opinion, to do those three things is not a good thing to consider nor post on UTube. The three things were:
X. enter on that basis doesn't count.
1. hold through, non protected, in a news event where the DD is Twice expected acceptable profits.
2. take profits at the time of a conventional entry signal i(the narrator called it by its name)
3. leave twice the profits on the table (an early exit was made) than if trailing stops would have been used or other simple methods used.
the repair work could be this.
If you are going to scalp a C&H, then do not enter on the left rim.
If you are going to scalp a C&CH enter on the bottom of the C&H.
If you are going to enter a C&H use the rules for C&H, instead.
If you are going the exit on a standard entry, know that you are giving up 100% of the expected return of that action you took.
With respect to news trading, there are several admonitions to keep in mind.
By the numbers:
news timing is known ahead of time:
a. it is preannounced.
b. news makes three moves becore its effect is damped out.
c. the magnitude of the moves is known by looking in your journal
d. the duration of each move is known from your journal.
trading news.
If you do not know the above, don't trade the news.
If you do know the above, you may not bet on the direction.
Instead you must do a bracket trade and use the other side of the bracket as a trailing stop for the first move only.
There are three trades on the news. The Utube went into the trade at the end of the first move in the direction of the move. the "scalp" was upside down immediately and came back to BE only shortly before the hold exit half way into the third move.
Trading the moves with 5 contracts before the open of RTH's would have resulted in three trades of 200, 600 and 600 dollars profit if an advanced beginer was trading BO's or OB's only. BO is trading like redneck's and OB is Outside Bar odd harmonic trading (google: Fourrier or LaPlace)
Use my chart and annotate it to see the moves. the fast stoch relativeto news time give your the leading indicator signals using the two line cases and first deriviatives of the fast line for vectoring. The related histogram easily interpreps the two line cases as: M1 long: M2 short, and M3 long.
Maybe Dave can get this guy he believes in on the radio.
