Trend Following dying?

neat post... I saw the references to the meeting, etc.....

It would be so nice the have some sort of whatever to encourage people to protect themselves for what is ahead.....
 
Quote from TIKITRADER:

Here is a current chart of the ES Monthly.
More...

Thanks for adding that chart

It was such a strange feeling when the price moved permanently off the LTL of that Bull retrace of the Depression.

So now its 2010.

The acceleration on the short ended the extension of the original RTL by the way.

It is best to work forward from the point 1 of the acceleration on the short when the VE occurred on the short.

The end of the bull retrace sets up a point 3 and March defines the volatility of the Depression,

The volatility can be narrowed in the years ahead but that comes after the expense of a VE on the LTL of the new envelope.

The whole of the econometrics is buried (or revealed) in these boundaries.

What are the implications of no one at the helm?

Seeing those people stonewall Ms Born and then facing the necessity to say they had the wrong approach for understanding how it all works.

The lack of integrity in those functionaries is beyond the realm of possibility; but that is the way it will always be from now on.

I know Bass was just dealing for himself and normal interests, but he really ripped one so easily and he even tried for audiences with the power structure.

The opportunity is simply unbelievable and so sacrificial. A lot of new money repair work ahead. This is sooo global.
 
Quote from Trader666:

This is bogus because it ignores the buy and sell dates on your first attachment. Also, the market as a whole was pretty much up during this time period anyway.



Triple 6,
What is bogus? The fact you can buy the bunch and be ahead 9% at the end of the week? Or, if you are rotating out of a stock at the end of it’s b2brb cycle you have a new batch ready to go and can buy another from your list as it gets ready. Jacks list can be traded or used as an example for those learning to build their own. If you trade it you don’t learn, you just make money. The fact there are many ways you can find yourself in a position to be ahead and compounding week after week is a tough one to believe for some.
Hypostomus et al. eventually had a holy shit type religious moment and apologized to Jack for being a pain, but this will never happen with you. This is pathological flaming.

S
 
By no means did we apologize. Some of us just felt bad about relentlessly ragging on a semi-senile old man. Sort of like the pot calling the kettle black. And eventually one tires of taking the obvious cheap shots.
 
Quote from SS314:

Man, what a flame fest!!

S
More...

Hit the complain link to register a complaint or simply click on their name and put them in your ignore list.

I'm guilty of arguing with them for a bit but you get to a point where you realize you can't rationalize processes with children.
 
hi jack,

hopefully my question will benefit others doing the work.

you listed the types of trends, slow to fast
channel
traverse
tape
bbt
sub
sub sub,

for a visible gaussian 'W', need peak trough peak trough peak,
so minimum of 5 bars, is the fastest visible fractal the
bbt? if not which is it?

assuming bbt is is fastest visible, then how is the sub, subsub,
identified?

given a 2 bar XB, immediately followed by 2 bars XR, 4 bar total, then you dont have the 5 bars needed for the gauss W.
how is this situation handled?

thanks
 
There are a whole spectrum of people and skills represented on ET.

Most people do not remain in trading very long, as it turns out.

It is very important that as many misconceptionsas possible be dealt with over and over. There are many many ways to trade successfully. The PEP and its applications are but a small portion.

It appears that a new era is unfolding in that ET may be able to handle videos that may be used to recount how the actual real time trading occurs. Dave introduced one of these for a scalp trade using news. It turned out the demonstrator also mentioned a famous pattern and he happened to do an exit on the patterns normal entry point.

Personally I look forward to the technical advances that will put to rest some of the miscommunications that abound on the global forums.

T666 has always provided examples of how a given class of traders view information provided to others publically. THe mistakes he makes using information that is unfamiliar to him is a warning to others to not fall into the superficial traps he succumbs to.

The batting order description was used because we made an assumption that people knew how baseball works. we thought the PH (pinch hitter) was obvious too. Our looseness with terminology by referring to a commonly known sport is not a good idea for people who use trems like iron clad, a naval expression.

Obviously the approach we use to trade quality stocks using the factors of the compound interest formula, escapes T666 and his reasoning process.

The pattern is a terrific and interlocking model of several key advantages that a traders can use to reinforce and collateralize his performance.

By combining the psychological nature of A and D with the technical nature of P and V and understanding the periodic aspect of the markets, we thought others would appreciate and grasp and apply to their trading philosophy.

T666 created a nonsensical abortion instead. It was spectacular for him to make the point he did with this screw up. Again it serves as a classic warning to other to not combine things that have no inherent relationship.

Also it is an important example of how data processed in backtesting is best articulated by using math and statisitics. I don't think many people were will to translate hie results with out the basic ingredients of the test being vailable. Hypothisizing about what he did is futile in this case.

PVT is set up to enable learners to go through six stages of increasing perfomance all related to effectiveness and efficience.

Ultimately cross over trading is accomplished usint the time rate of change of profits relative to hels positions and potential developing positions. Here we strive for 2 trades in five days which puts to annual compounding at 100 cycles per year.

The IAS qualifies stocks @ 20 % cycle range and we strive for 50% of each move in the cross over. By "chopping the beginning and ends of the long part of the pattern we do have to contend with the "retrace" type second move in any pattern.

In the terrific eample T666 posted you see the secong move and the doji that is part of that. the sceond move was horizontalrelatively speaking.
getting the prior RTL in the picture is important (I showed that in my annotation). A trader doing 100 cycles per year is focussed on having cash "just in time" as is done in industry today (having been imported from Japan years ago).

By going into a trend already under way and avoiding the secnd move time period, a trader can get into a process where by he buys later and exits early. In effect he focusses on the higher money velocity of the long portion of the cycle. It is also true that the short portion usually has a higher velocity in it move 1 and 3 of the short pattern.

The situation for trader to learn is in high contrast when you compare purposeful learning with the OCD anger of failed ET traders.

Simply stated those who generate the lists and universes and who do the IAS's cannot be compared to "takers" whose minds are undifferentiated and who use any shortcut they try to invent to get something for nothing.

T666 looked a a batting order sheet. someone posted clear station for him. He lloks to find something to "prove a case".. he does his thing and it becomes an example to learn from . B people like T28, Dave and Tzones learn that trading doesn't work for them. A people see that there is a growth process that is used by people who are making a lot of money doing a lot of cycles per year. Originally the PVT trading ws documented for more than a year, week by week, where the actual trades were called then traded and the reusults were posted. Now it is being passed forward all over the world.

what is nice about T66, et al, is that they keep examples of not working and not doing a process of purposeful learning in front of the public. This sorts people into either the A or B category. This filtering is terrific. B people go away and A people learn to become expert traders.

By working from 30 to 100 cycles per year, or just seeing that path, any person can translate this into an incentive to trade stocks using their "natural cycle. finding the stocks has become the press of a button. qualifying stocks is fun to do after trading hours. seeing the stocks take their turn at bat is fun too because you have the list before it happens. Hence the paper called "Getting Tomorrow's Ppare Today" a name given to the PVT process by users. T666 wanted to check it out and he failed to do a back test. Instead he invented a trading technique and proved his technique is statistically insiignificant. Those who use PVT do what is specified for doing PVT:

1. Sorting

2. qualifying by criteria.

3. maintaining a Universe

4. making hot lists

5. doing trading by timing the markets using tiles of charts and MADA.

6. iterative refinement going through many doublings of effectiveness and efficiency.

The final objective is 100 cycles a year @ a nominal 10% using up to 12 streams of capital where the shares are limited to 100,000 per stream. For years there has been documentation available for a trade at this capacity. The exit required 31 partial fills and some capital was left on the table for this nominal 30 dollar stock. The third party review of the FEDEX'ed information resulted in the broker reducing trading commission by 10% for anyone who wished to use the method in accounts at his firm.

There is documentation on all of this and it came from a meeting process. Anyone can get and use the documentation for self study. Another alternative is to use the ET record that was developed and where a Q and A process augmented the example of using the method in real time for over a year.

Learning to trade is a process. It is not done by "taking" this and that and putting a mess together and expecting any results.


The heart and core of good trading is having a differentiated mind that provides all the inference needed to have "perception" as a consequence of being able to make use of what is seen.

RNOW is a great example of a stock going through the PVT process. RNOW was used by PVT people to make money. Anyone can learn PVT; there are no constraints with respect to going through the learning process. Having a differentiated mind for trading stocks, automaticaly translates for getting inot the ball park for trading SCT using the ES or a similar commodity as the instrument. The common elements of differentiation are:

1. purposeful learning through a process of drills.

2. long term memory which provides available inference for what is seen.

3. finite sets of available information in the mind for each phase of MADA.

4. a thouogh understanding of the order of events in market operation (the pattern, nested fractals, etc.)

5. A thorough binary vector orientation

6. a full coherence orientation which manifests as support, comfort and confidence.

The following are eliminated as part of trading:

1. probability

2. predicting

3. protection techniques required to compensate for 1 and 2 above.


4. elimination of having to use an OODA feedback system.

5. the emotional incoherence depicted by anxiety, fear and anger.
 
Quote from tackrl:

hi jack,

hopefully my question will benefit others doing the work.

you listed the types of trends, slow to fast
channel
traverse
tape
bbt
sub
sub sub,

for a visible gaussian 'W', need peak trough peak trough peak,
so minimum of 5 bars, is the fastest visible fractal the
bbt? if not which is it?

assuming bbt is is fastest visible, then how is the sub, subsub,
identified?

given a 2 bar XB, immediately followed by 2 bars XR, 4 bar total, then you dont have the 5 bars needed for the gauss W.
how is this situation handled?

thanks
More...

DKM brought this up a while back. He was looking at the ingredients of a slower fractal in terms of the fast fractal components.

both of your questions and conclusions show good reasong and as usual there is another consideration.

It is found by drilling down to the case level. Ordinarily we make pepole who are thinking puzzel over their locus of awareness and work to the answer by reasoning.

But its Saturday and we are taking a break.

so here goes.

the noine cases show that a lot of the time itakes two bars to be the equivalnet of one bar. Tah twould make the solution take longer.

so thinking in the opposite direction is called for. you are using the progressive bar pairs that move things along in terms of making money. This is a very good orientation.

the Bar we are going to focus on is the bar that does more than one thing in its life.

Use the OB which makes 2 points in one bar.

The neat thing about OB's is that they can occur over and over but the pattern is not completed if they do go one after another.

So you look for the case that enables another 2 poiinter to come next. The sym is the case.

So to compress the cycling of nested fractals you wnt to use alternating OB's and sym's

In your question you used volume's four points (the first and last are the same cycle point). That puts us in the IBGS land, I hope.

I feel that we are not far from platforms that no longer anchor the volume bar to an arbitrary line. It is very difficult to reason with platform company decision makers on the saleability of their platforms. The picture of any vendor corp is a strange one. Programmers ar assigned tasks that come from somewhere. that somewhere is not expert traders or expert programmers outside the company.

Talking about enabling outsiders to use the platform and have private libraries is a hard sell too.

To use the price shortcut I mentioned you do need to observe IBGS's. Taking the volume anchor away makes that possible. So imagine volume unanchored and seeing IBDS's visually through sensing and having a differentiated mind with respect to the inference required.

This is what actually happens in markets as we all know. Maybe not to compress all the moves consecutively in one fast fractal pattern but it is part of the finite set.

I reduced the 52 of DKM to 19 as I remember using alternating OB's and syms. There were IBGS's as well and that wasn't presented at that time.

Great Q and great way to do a drill on what is possible to have appear and have to summon from the mind the "I know that I know".

as this thread goes along, a lot of people are going to get glimpses of the exisitence of the pattern. Maybe an incentive will emerge for them.

Looking at a day like Friday does show how the cases flow along. the algos were kicking in occasionally to fight with each other and that occasionally goosed the volume to go from wall the wall occasionally.

Alterrnating tight and loose walls is something that catches the eye occasionally.

I am thinking of how neat it will be when discussions on ET will involve video snippets back and forth.

I use the term steer and focus occasionally. When a person gets to "anticipatiion", he naturally wants to go and look at what will be pertinent in the very near term. this is what introduces filtering and gating into the ATS evelopment. The "tuned" two line indicators are really fruitful at these times.

Lets post the "shorted" patern of the day for a few days......lol...

when we get the OB count above ten for a day, that can be a good quiz day too.....

we probably should come up with a column to replace the financial pages standby's like the dunce trading column.
 
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