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Trend Following depends on Prediction
- Thread starter AFJ Garner
- Start date
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Even traders get lucky from time to time.
Something being where you didn't expect it to be doesn't have anything to do with prediction.
Even random entry is profitable sometimes. Random entry is the only type of trading that is not predicting.
Huh? Random entry is predicting that the trade will go in your direction, otherwise why pay the vig or enter the trade?
Quote from marketsurfer:
Huh? Random entry is predicting that the trade will go in your direction, otherwise why pay the vig or enter the trade?
Random entry is not predicting anything.
The only way you should enter is if you have reason to believe that price is more likely to move in your favor than not in which case it's not a random entry because you made the decision to enter in a specific direction because of a specific reason.
Random entry = at 9:00am I will flip a coin and heads I'll go long and tails I'll go short = no prediction.
Prediction = because price just did [pattern] I now believe it is more likely to go up than to go down or chop, so I am going long.
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Random entry is not predicting anything.
The only way you should enter is if you have reason to believe that price is more likely to move in your favor than not in which case it's not a random entry because you made the decision to enter in a specific direction because of a specific reason.
Random entry = at 9:00am I will flip a coin and heads I'll go long and tails I'll go short = no prediction.
Prediction = because price just did [pattern] I now believe it is more likely to go up than to go down or chop, so I am going long.
I see your point. Thanks for clarifying.
surf
Quote from bigarrow:
Is making 100 trades and expecting 40% of them to lose money predicting?
Yes. You can predict that each individual trade has a 40% chance of losing money. You can also predict that each trade will probably be a winner since it has a 60% chance of winning money. Essentially you are taking the trade because you are predicting that it has a 60% chance of winning.
A certain situation appears -> you know based on your experience that if you open a position now it has a 60% chance of winning -> you predict that your trade will be a winner -> you open the position based on this prediction
You are entering in a specific direction because of a specific reason that leads you to believe you will have a winning trade. That is prediction. It doesn't mean you will be right 100% of the time, however, it just means you are predicting based on the information at hand at the time.
Yes ... of course. And that is the type of prediction we make all the time. Good traders are better predictors than bad ones. A good trader "knows" what a 60% trade looks like (context, setup etc.) and a poor trader mistakes the 45% trade for a 60.
That's what it is all about. For simplicity I have eliminated scratch trades.
That's what it is all about. For simplicity I have eliminated scratch trades.
Quote from bigarrow:
Is making 100 trades and expecting 40% of them to lose money predicting?