Trend Following depends on Prediction

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Predicting doesn't mean it will DEFINITELY happen.

A prediction is what you think will happen based on the data you currently have available.

I am aware that predictions don't have to be definitive, hence why I made my statement conditional ('IF you define prediction as...).

You are also wrong about what a prediction is, they don't have to be what you expect to happen. A prediction could merely be a statement of probability of an event that is likely NOT to happen (e.g. I may predict a 10% chance that gold crashes on Monday; or this dice has a 1/6 chance of landing 6).

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Given that anyone with an IQ of 12 or more would realize this definition is rediculous ... this one is a straw man.

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
If you define a prediction as 'this will DEFINITELY happen in the future' then it isn't based on prediction..

The existence of this thread and debate shows that plenty of people think a prediction must be definitive.

In past threads about prediction I have in fact had people, some of them with normal or high IQs try to argue that probabilistic predictions are not in fact predictions at all, and that only definitive/certain statements about the future can be called 'predictions'.

 

[slumdog]

Any strategy that can executed by computer cant be based on prediction.

A computer cant predict. It has no notion of the future. It can only act on its inputs.

Humans can give the computer output a meaning and say its a prediction.

But since a computer has no notion of the future let alone predict it.
The strategy being run cant be about prediction.

 

[wrbtrader]

Guys and Gals,

Its all semantics. Bottomline is that regardless if your Long or Short...you can call it whatever you want. Its still a trade.

 

[slumdog]

Quote from wrbtrader:

Guys and Gals,

Its all semantics. Bottomline is that regardless if your Long or Short...you can call it whatever you want. Its still a trade.

Based on the last X price bars.
I am either long, short or neutral.
All i do is go long short or neutral depending on some logic i have developed.
I dont care what my results are. I just follow that process.

There is no semantic ambiguity in what i have written. I havent made
any predictions about the future, i am just following my rules
which are pure logic. That is what trend followers do.

Any notion that i am making a prediction is something YOU bring to it. It exists only in your head. Look at the facts. The process involves no prediction. And it doesn't even guarantee to make money.

As far as i am concerned i am just following a bunch of rules, if i make money thats ok, if i lose money thats ok. It doesn't matter.
My job is just to follow that process.

If the crowd behaves like it has in the past (ie with madness) then there is good chance i will make money, but i cant predict when or if that will ever happen.

 

[Sergio77]

Prediction is NOT probability. it is equivalent to prophecy. If you want to imply probability better use the word forecasting.

 

[a5519]

Quote from slumdog:

Any strategy that can executed by computer cant be based on prediction.

A computer cant predict. It has no notion of the future. It can only act on its inputs.

Humans can give the computer output a meaning and say its a prediction.

But since a computer has no notion of the future let alone predict it.
The strategy being run cant be about prediction.

This clueless ranting only shows that you have no even basic education in computer based data analysis.

Everyone who is making consistently money in the markets is good in prediction/forecasting/using edge. These are synonyms in a trading context for anticipating situations when the odds for winning trade are better than for losing.

 

[ammo]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

But each trade is made in the expectation that this type of trade will be profitable if made enough times over the long run. That is a prediction about the future behaviour of the market.

not really into the semantics here,nor you probably,just watch the markets,try to recognize 2 or 3 scenarios and place a bet ,you can tell pretty early on if you start at s/r if they are going to work,if they are,you ride em to target,if not ,you bail,its more of a bet,not a prediction,any one knows how the predict and hang on because you know your right scenario works out,it soon forces you out of predictions hopefully before it forces you out of biz

 

[Swan Noir]

I buy this. Maybe not the only answer but as good as any other.

Quote from a5519:


Everyone who is making consistently money in the markets is good in prediction/forecasting/using edge. These are synonyms in a trading context for anticipating situations when the odds for winning trade are better than for losing.

 

[bigarrow]

Quote from wrbtrader:

Guys and Gals,

Its all semantics. Bottomline is that regardless if your Long or Short...you can call it whatever you want. Its still a trade.

+ 1 I'm getting dizzy reading the back and forth on this thread.