Agree 100%.
surf
Trend Following depends on Prediction
- Thread starter AFJ Garner
- Start date
Agree 100%.
surf
It is not semanticsâ¦
It took considerable effort to get past the prediction phase of my tradingâ¦., and I have no intention of returning
If you donât get it â donât sweat it⦠just donât expect me (and obviously others) to agree
Btw; ever pause and wonder why we donât â rhetorical of course
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If one canât differentiate between anticipation and prediction, then one hasn't fully developed an understanding / appreciation of PA⦠or how simple trading is
And thatâs okay â you should still be able to make money
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And no, my post is not directed at BH, he gets itâ¦.
Itâs simply well worth it to reread his posts
irie â or not
RN
Trading doesn't require prediction.
Its a bit like fishing, you go to where the fish are and throw in your line and maybe catch something or maybe you dont. You cant predict what you are going to catch or how many.
Waiting for a rangebound market to breakout is not a prediction, it is a prerequisite for trying to catch a trend. You dont want to be too early and you dont want to be too late, so common sense is to wait until a breakout from a range and get in as soon as you get a signal.
Its just common sense like going to where there are lots of fish inorder to catch some fish.
Saying trend following depends on prediction is like saying a fisherman depends on prediction to catch fish.
Its a bit like fishing, you go to where the fish are and throw in your line and maybe catch something or maybe you dont. You cant predict what you are going to catch or how many.
Waiting for a rangebound market to breakout is not a prediction, it is a prerequisite for trying to catch a trend. You dont want to be too early and you dont want to be too late, so common sense is to wait until a breakout from a range and get in as soon as you get a signal.
Its just common sense like going to where there are lots of fish inorder to catch some fish.
Saying trend following depends on prediction is like saying a fisherman depends on prediction to catch fish.
As a lifelong avid fisherman, I need to disagree with you. I only cast to places where I predict fish to be. No need to waste energy to water without fish. Prediction to where the fish will be, what they want to eat and how aggressive they will be ---is the key to fishing success. Just like in trading, prediction is paramount.
If you make a trade/bet in markets you're anticipating the outcome of a future event... which you expect to be in your favor.
an·tic·i·pate
/anˈtisəˌpāt/
Verb
Regard as probable; expect or predict.
Guess or be aware of (what will happen) and take action in order to be prepared.
Anyone can spin it anyway they want... they are just following the market, they are fishing for money... whatever.
Making a prediction does not mean you're a prophet... completely different. A prophet has to do with religion/god and they make prophecies... relaying a message from the supernatural. They are even crazier than traders and gamblers, but not necessarily as uneducated.
an·tic·i·pate
/anˈtisəˌpāt/
Verb
Regard as probable; expect or predict.
Guess or be aware of (what will happen) and take action in order to be prepared.
Anyone can spin it anyway they want... they are just following the market, they are fishing for money... whatever.
Making a prediction does not mean you're a prophet... completely different. A prophet has to do with religion/god and they make prophecies... relaying a message from the supernatural. They are even crazier than traders and gamblers, but not necessarily as uneducated.
Baloney! I've been fishing for 45+ years and some great (and even record) fish that I've caught were not supposed to be there according to local lake experts.
The idea of fishing as in trading is to eliminate the 80-90% of the water that is unlikely to hold significant numbers of fish.
Once one is the "productive" areas, it is still very unpredictable.
Put yourself in good spots with significant potential and wait for your move.
Haven't you just made the case for the opposite argument? If local fisherman contend the fish you caught are not supposed to be there you are using your experience to predict that there is a reasonable or even a high probability that they will be there. You are perdicting the locals (with years of lake experience) are wrong.
In elimiinating 80 - 90% of the water you are again using your years of experience to predict that the eliminated water is low probibility to cast into. Except for baiting the hook (or attaching the lure) and casting you are doing practically nothing else but predicting where they PROBABLY are and where they PROBABLY ain't.
In fact one of the highest values skill you bring to the game is your ability to predict those things. My friend, as a fisherman, you are not only a predictor you are a damn good predictor. Unless, of course those "record" fish are nothing but a fish story.
In elimiinating 80 - 90% of the water you are again using your years of experience to predict that the eliminated water is low probibility to cast into. Except for baiting the hook (or attaching the lure) and casting you are doing practically nothing else but predicting where they PROBABLY are and where they PROBABLY ain't.
In fact one of the highest values skill you bring to the game is your ability to predict those things. My friend, as a fisherman, you are not only a predictor you are a damn good predictor. Unless, of course those "record" fish are nothing but a fish story.
I don't hold any records, world, state, or even lake/river but I can catch fish fairly consistently by predicting where they will be and their mood on the day.
surf