Trend Following depends on Prediction

Quote from ammo:

surf we get it ,you dont do TA,do you have to post it in ten differnt threads weekin week out for months
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Just trying to show the absurdity of using charts as a trading decision making tool--- still no evidence that I am wrong, after months----
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

you need to specify "long or short"-- therefore the broker insists you tell him your direction prior to entering.. The TA folks are so blinded by hindsight and looking at charts, they think its real time. surf
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You use TA and you're on record here at ET in saying such for fact. The only differences you have with fellow TA users is that the stuff you refer to as "useful"...you don't consider it TA. In addition, you've said the reasons why you use TA is different than the reasons why others use TA.

Continuing, a trader that you have defended as a verified profitable trader. He's a TA user and he explains his TA in his Youtube videos in that its part of his trading plan in reference to price moving averages and chart patterns. In addition, he sells a breakout trading course involving fundamentals with TA...

That person is your pal Timothy Sykes. You've tried covering your butt via replying that T. Sykes doesn't use TA the same as others.

I don't care how he uses it and how you use it nor do I care about how much of TA you and him do use. The fact remains, you use it and those you say that are profitable traders are also using TA too. :D

You're what I call a "closet TA user" that needs to have a "coming out party". :cool:
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

It depends entirely how you define 'prediction'. If you define prediction as an expectation about how the future is likely to turn out (e.g. 'I am buying because I expect the market is more likely to rise a lot than fall') then trend-following, and indeed all profit-seeking market behaviour, depends on prediction. If you define a prediction as 'this will DEFINITELY happen in the future' then it isn't based on prediction..
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Predicting doesn't mean it will DEFINITELY happen.

A prediction is what you think will happen based on the data you currently have available.
 
Given that anyone with an IQ of 12 or more would realize this definition is rediculous ... this one is a straw man.


Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
If you define a prediction as 'this will DEFINITELY happen in the future' then it isn't based on prediction..
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Quote from euclid:

If I want to profit from a price movement, my broker insists that I state both the direction and position size before the move happens. In English, this is the very definition of prediction: A statement before the fact.

What makes it a prediction is not why you make it or whether you think it will prove correct, but simply the time that you make it. So I don't get what you guys mean when you say a trade isn't a prediction. That just doesn't make sense.
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Of course that's what your broker wants you to do, 'To Predict' because it is a failed trading strategy and he's more than likely fading your move.

All you guys who insist trading is prediction obviously know no other way to trade. You believe trading is all about prediction and are oblivious to another method. Surf for example is a typical 'Prediction Trader'. Therefore you guys want to tar all traders with the same brush. Ah ah no no, I don't give a rats ass which way the market moves, I don't sit on the edge of my seat hoping my trade will work out because of a hunch I have market is going up or down or sideways. Market can turn to hell in a handbasket, I don't care, I'm just coat-tailing AND THAT IS NOT PREDICTION.
 
Surf,
Honest question. You are a journalist and trader. Youve been around 20+ years.
Do you know of Peter Brandt? Charts as "trading tools" and trend following seem to be exactly his thing and relevant to this specific thread and TA in general.

Thanks.
 
I'll add further...if you read the news to get a feel for the market, study fundamental analysis, listen to gurus, study TA indicators etc, even study volume bars, then you are probably a Prediction trader.
My trading is: Listen to no trading news and zero study of fundamentals, no TV (don't have one) no volume study, zero indicators.
I have studied fundamentals, news, indicators, volume etc but found they compounded failed trades.
Hence why most long term ET members who are clearly struggling in their trading don't get it, they are caught up in a soup of emotions and looking outside for answers when the answers are inside and simple.
However I think for many people they cannot accept simplicity, "its too dumb".
 
Quote from eurusdzn:

Surf,
Honest question. You are a journalist and trader. Youve been around 20+ years.
Do you know of Peter Brandt? Charts as "trading tools" and trend following seem to be exactly his thing and relevant to this specific thread and TA in general.

Thanks.
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Thanks, yeah, but I have only been writing about my experiences for about 12 years. No, I never heard of him. I reccomend David Aronson's book-- Evidence Based Technical Analysis as a great primer on what TA is what TA is not. surf
 
Quote from themickey:

Of course that's what your broker wants you to do, 'To Predict' because it is a failed trading strategy and he's more than likely fading your move.

All you guys who insist trading is prediction obviously know no other way to trade. You believe trading is all about prediction and are oblivious to another method. Surf for example is a typical 'Prediction Trader'. Therefore you guys want to tar all traders with the same brush. Ah ah no no, I don't give a rats ass which way the market moves, I don't sit on the edge of my seat hoping my trade will work out because of a hunch I have market is going up or down or sideways. Market can turn to hell in a handbasket, I don't care, I'm just coat-tailing AND THAT IS NOT PREDICTION.
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So you don't predict.

Why do you open a position, then? When you buy, are you not expecting that price will go up?
 
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