Exactly. There's no way disciplined and systematic long term investment in fundamentally good company stock could work these days, since WB's methods have been made publically available. Which effectively means, start shorting "good" companies NOW. IT will work as long as you don't latch on to a publically available contrarian method. Don't post your charts.
trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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Exactly. There's no way disciplined and systematic long term investment in fundamentally good company stock could work these days, since WB's methods have been made publically available. Which effectively means, start shorting "good" companies NOW. IT will work as long as you don't latch on to a publically available contrarian method. Don't post your charts.
Hey, anybody know the significance of
April 1st?
p.s. In my trend following today I was following a trend on the NQ (long side) and was wrong. The result, I made a one tick profit.
April 1st?
p.s. In my trend following today I was following a trend on the NQ (long side) and was wrong. The result, I made a one tick profit.
Start shorting companies that publicly available techniques have overvalued.
Big money was made like that when the bubble ended in 2000.
Man:
One Hundred and Seventy-Eight Pages of Pure, Unadulterated Crap, is apparently what is takes before we see one shred of wisdom from you!!!!!
Yes, (and it is just a shred)
If we are at a turning point in the market. Duh. Then it makes sense to short any number of overvalued issues, just as it did during the Dot.com bubble. Now the real question is which are those companies? and of course Nickelscraper cannot offer us any help there, because he has no clue.
So where to begin? Well one way is to start with overvalued sectors, and drill down looking for P/E that is high compared to peers.
There I think I have done my good deed for the day.
Oh my god, here comes a gigaflop!!!!
See you folks
Lefty, the Fund Destroyer......
One Hundred and Seventy-Eight Pages of Pure, Unadulterated Crap, is apparently what is takes before we see one shred of wisdom from you!!!!!
Yes, (and it is just a shred)
If we are at a turning point in the market. Duh. Then it makes sense to short any number of overvalued issues, just as it did during the Dot.com bubble. Now the real question is which are those companies? and of course Nickelscraper cannot offer us any help there, because he has no clue.
So where to begin? Well one way is to start with overvalued sectors, and drill down looking for P/E that is high compared to peers.
There I think I have done my good deed for the day.
Oh my god, here comes a gigaflop!!!!
See you folks
Lefty, the Fund Destroyer......
Efficient with respect to publicly available techniques means that, like 19 out of 20 of your fellow daydreamers, when the end of the free ride came, you would have gone down with the ship.
may i qoute william gallacher from "winner take all"
"the desire to draw lines and triangles on bar charts may stem from a deeply rooted unwillingless in the human psyche to accept the existence of a cruel and dispassionate universe. the chart is a kinder and gentler creature when its intractable squiggles are neatly bound into nice orderly channels and wedges... children enjoy connecting the dots...... i'm sorry, (commodity) trading is strictly for adults, and if we want to make any sense of it, we need to put away childish things....... chart readers might also ponder the philosophical implications of forecasting by lookign backwards. the notion that prices evolve in predictive patterns is consistent with deterministic view of the universe. frankly, i doubt prices are pre ordained. it is possible, i suppose, and what a joke that would be on all of us! "
enjoy the weekend trendies and trendatheists alike !
"the desire to draw lines and triangles on bar charts may stem from a deeply rooted unwillingless in the human psyche to accept the existence of a cruel and dispassionate universe. the chart is a kinder and gentler creature when its intractable squiggles are neatly bound into nice orderly channels and wedges... children enjoy connecting the dots...... i'm sorry, (commodity) trading is strictly for adults, and if we want to make any sense of it, we need to put away childish things....... chart readers might also ponder the philosophical implications of forecasting by lookign backwards. the notion that prices evolve in predictive patterns is consistent with deterministic view of the universe. frankly, i doubt prices are pre ordained. it is possible, i suppose, and what a joke that would be on all of us! "
enjoy the weekend trendies and trendatheists alike !
Great quote! Several interesting points.
Quote from Lefty62151:
Hello:
I am done for the day. Reached my target of 10 S&P points just now. Attached is a chart taken from my backup data feed (for one more month). Although I have made money with this setup, I use one that varies a little from what you will see. Notice the trend that is clearly down. Notice the two EMA's (21 period and 5 period) As long as they look like this I am in the market. I sold 1187.75 and I got out at 1177.75 on the button. I am going to get some sleep. I hope this "delusion" lasts long enough for me to see the trade clear. As Tony Oz says in his books, "Friday is payday".
Good Luck "Anti-Trendists"
Lefty
Edit:
By the way, I don't want to give the impression that I do this everyday. I don't. I don't want to give the impression that this is easy. In fact, it is pretty hard for my to keep my fingers off the damn mouse especially on the pullbacks. From my point of view the secret (if there is one) is to control your emotions while continuing to exercise good judgement. That part requires a combination of market feel and experience that is (apparently) very hard to acquire. There were two good "trend days" this week. I screwed up the first one, and caught this one. Again to answer the comments of the naysayers, I don't know exactly when these events will occur, but I do know when the percentages are in my favor. I place my bets like the rest of you, and as far as I can tell the only difference between us is the way that I manage the risk. What else can I say?
great job catchin 10 points there...thats a BIG accomplishment. I missed this trend day...ended up minus 1 ES point on the day....and I was short at 1182.....but a poor entry led to my stop being hit before i caught the move. But on the other trend day..I managed to do well. It is upsetting casue I'd like to think days like today....a nice trend...are the ones i'll get a hold of...this just means I gotta work on my entries i guess!
Hello John:
At least you got one of the trend days. I understand completely when a trader says he missed an entry or got shaken out. The real challenge for a trader is to pick the right stop loss, and to keep your hands off the mouse. I used to get shaken out all the time, till finally I found a way to keep myself on the right side. It is still a real challenge to see price retrace and have to talk myself out of taking profits. As far as I am concerned, once a trader has his technique down, the big challenges are
1. Choosing a decent stop loss.
2. Knowing when to put on size.
3. Keeping from taking profits too soon.
If these are problems for you too, let me know (PM me), maybe I can help you out.
Lefty.
At least you got one of the trend days. I understand completely when a trader says he missed an entry or got shaken out. The real challenge for a trader is to pick the right stop loss, and to keep your hands off the mouse. I used to get shaken out all the time, till finally I found a way to keep myself on the right side. It is still a real challenge to see price retrace and have to talk myself out of taking profits. As far as I am concerned, once a trader has his technique down, the big challenges are
1. Choosing a decent stop loss.
2. Knowing when to put on size.
3. Keeping from taking profits too soon.
If these are problems for you too, let me know (PM me), maybe I can help you out.
Lefty.
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