trend following delusion shattered

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Hello:

I think you can gain something from both statements. First, the "market", meaning the larger markets like the S&P500 for instance, seems to exihibit both persistent trending behavior (about 25-30% of the time) and ranging behavior (where it backs and fills within a range, also called a "trading range"). If one knows that the markets exhibit this tidal behavior, one might look to anticipate the change in tide just the same way surfers do when they drive out to the beach at all hours of the day and night just to catch what they hope will be big waves.

By the way, everyone should visit the thread titled "Going to be Broke". It is a real eye opener.

Take Care,
Lefty
 
Excuse me for interfering into your conversation but if someone wants to define mathematically if a market is trending why not just calculate volatility using a shorter and longer time interval. For example the fact that:

Annualized Volatility using daily data = 18%
Annualized Volatility using weekly data = 20.5%

is a positive indication that trends existed in this particular market. What will happen in the future is a different question …

Regards
 
Quote from Mr Subliminal:

The above has proven to be a winning strategy, the profit comparable to that obtained with KAMA. Who needs moving averages? All this in my world, of course.
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What you have described is a way to exploit persistence in the change of price without attempting any trend following.

It's an excellent workaround which doesn't require the concept of trend in dispute here.
 
Another load of crap from the king of crap. The only place where trend is in dispute is in your head.

Maybe you'd like another math lesson?

Here is a wonderful opportunity to learn the true meaning of the word "insipid". Lets use it in a sentence.

"Nickelscalper has just posted another insipid comment".

I am done for the day. My first entry was at 1072.25. Lets call that the "n" trade. Then at 1073.25, I added contracts, effectively betting on continuation (lets call that "n + 1" or simply "trend behavior"). Getting out with a profit at 1074.25 I decided to call that a day. Then I checked in here and ready another "insipid" comment from Nickelscalper.

My best to everyone.

Don't let the trend bite you on the ass Nickelscalper. :D

Lefty.....

 
No problem Nickel, thanks for providing such an easy target to hit.

By the way, those of us who actually execute a trade, would classify the price action to this moment as indicative of a possible "trend day".

Edit:

Well lets see, we are at about 11:50 am EST and still have a trend day intact. Decided to stay up and look for another scalp in honor of Nickel"scalper". Entry at 1177.25 (n). Added contracts at 1178.25 (n +1), and took profit at 1179 even. Just going with the trend on this nice little "trend day".

OK, I am tired and when I get tired I make bad trade decisions. So I am going to hit the rack.

Good luck everyone. Knock'em dead.
Lefty.
 
Though the details of persistence in the change of price are known only after the fact (as with trend), perhaps knowledge of its general existence is enough to make a profit.

Could be an interesting new topic of discussion.
 
Fortunately one does not need to know the "details of persistence" in advance. To make a profit, one has only to calculate the probabilities. Mr. Subliminal did that and posted the results. As usual, you were away, perhaps visiting another planet. I am just guessing that you were visiting the planet "URANUS". In fact, I will bet that you spend quite a lot of time on "URANUS". So much so, that oxygen deprivation may be affecting your cognitive abilities.

:D

Edit:

By the way, as of 12:45 EST, we still have a "trend day" intact.

:D :D :D
 
The more of your posts I read, the more obvious it becomes that there once was a mediocre trader named Lefty the Clown, and you're just his vicious and lonely Mini-Me.
 
Yes, how impressive. I am a bit tired, so if you wouldn't mind, please call yourself a complete "putz".

I realize that your attitude prevents you from learning anything useful about trading, but I do want to leave you with this new vocabulary word.

"Putz" from the Yiddish, meaning "fool" or "idiot"

Used in a sentence:

"Reading Nickelscalper's most recent comment, one must conclude that he is a complete putz."

I would like to get some sleep now.

:D

P.S. I have never been called "viscous". I had throught that only motor oil was viscous, but then you enlightened me. Thanks.
 
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