trend following delusion shattered

[hank rollins]

real trend followers are heavily capitalized and diversified across many non correlated markets. this allows one trade to bail the trend follower out of other trades that experience huge drawdowns. that is the theory behind the trend funds anyway.---the lesson is do not try this at home without sufficient capital resources to properly diversify and still earn greater than MM returns.

i recently read a study that indicates that trend strategies like moving average crossovers, etc sometimes experience near 100% drawdowns--

trend following is the new cool term for BUY/SELL AND HOLD DIVERSIFIED MARKETS. does it work ? sometimes.....

hank

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from nononsense:



. Keep on shattering trends or keep on looking for them. Whatever you like. Even random trends will do, pseudo or not.

sure, if you are on the right side......

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from hank rollins:

LOL, nickel. these guys have no clue regarding the point you are making. let them keep believing in spurious correlations and visual illusions, our money has to come from someone.

Quote from NickelScalper:

Right on.

I think that you two make an interesting tag team, given that one of you correctly does not believe in price prediction and forecasting, while the other engages in exactly that activity. Rather strange bedfellows, I'd say.

(Hint: visit the surf report for all the forecasts and predictions you can eat. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5285&highlight=surf+report )

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from Thunderdog:



(Hint: visit the surf report for all the forecasts and predictions you can eat. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5285&highlight=surf+report )

thanks for the plug.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from hank rollins:

thanks for the plug.

You're not really that oblivious to the irony here, are you? Don't be such a prankster, hankster.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from nononsense:

Hey,
We are swinging with RANDOM again.
Somebody care to explain what is random?

That's an interesting question. I use this one and would like to hear some feedback (with reverb):

Something is effectively random to the extent that its causes are not known in a way that makes it predictable.

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from Thunderdog:

You're not really that oblivious to the irony here, are you? Don't be such a prankster, hankster.

there is no irony in my trading or analysis.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from NickelScalper:

That's an interesting question. I use this one and would like to hear some feedback (with reverb):

Something is effectively random to the extent that its causes are not known in a way that makes it predictable.

This tread is looking more and more like at a contest for being the best living encyclopaedia. There is more discussion about the definition of words than anything else.

 

[nononsense]

Quote from NickelScalper:

That's an interesting question. I use this one and would like to hear some feedback (with reverb):

Something is effectively random to the extent that its causes are not known in a way that makes it predictable.

That's it Nickel,

I didn't post to bug people, but to point to the utter pedantic babble juggling terminology many don't have the foggiest understanding about.

In fact, it is known at least for 50 years that a random signal is, contrary to popular wisdom, not necessarily unpredictable as stated above. See Wiener Filtering. If people would study this a bit, it would clear up a lot of fuzziness and confusion about things like random signal, brownian motion, prediction.

After this, people might become a bit more thoughtful instead of mouthing off foolishly.

I thought it could help to make my views unambiguously clear about this.

Be good,
nononsense

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from Thunderdog:

...one of you correctly does not believe in price prediction and forecasting, while the other engages in exactly that activity....

How can a trader make a profit without predicting price?