trend following delusion shattered

[TSGannGalt]

So:

1. Most feel the market is not random.

2. All "pseudo"- logic doesn't exist to be significantly represent the market to be considered...

Then...

What is noise? Is noise random or non-random?

 

[TSGannGalt]

Quote from trade4succes:

just following subliminal's lead, everything is in context

I think I know the content (context) well enough to ask you for some clarification.

 

[nononsense]

Hey,
We are swinging with RANDOM again.
Somebody care to explain what is random?

 

[trade4succes]

Ok, aren't you making things a little more difficult than they are here

1) brownian motion, pseudo random number generation

2) no, introduced trends it's not random anymore, but the basis is still random. what you do is, you add a probability factor to the random number generating algorythm: p = 0.6 for next "flip of the coin to land on the same side as previous flip and p = 0.4 for other side

3) see 2)

 

[TSGannGalt]

Quote from nononsense:

Hey,
We are swinging with RANDOM again.
Somebody care to explain what is random?

"Every aspect human knowledge doesn't know about is random."

"Uncertainty represents our human desire for knowledge."

Uncertainty = random.

 

[TSGannGalt]

Quote from trade4succes:

Ok, aren't you making things a little more difficult than they are here

1) brownian motion, pseudo random number generation

2) no, introduced trends it's not random anymore, but the basis is still random. what you do is, you add a probability factor to the random number generating algorythm: p = 0.6 for next "flip of the coin to land on the same side as previous flip and p = 0.4 for other side

3) see 2)

Thank you. But I don't understand trendiness... Yet...

If the model is "pseudo" random.... then wouldn't the trendiness be random in a "pseudo" bias... leading to insignificance of actually having an indicator?

You already know what the model is... then it's just a matter of reverse-engineering the model to take granted of it...

I think the question leads to "How close is the model to real market condition?" and "Which market?"

 

[Mr Subliminal]

Quote from trade4succes:

Therefore i am thinking an indicator which displays trendiness could be very helpful to screen markets.

That may be problematic. Trendiness, however you define it, and exploitability may not necessarily go hand in hand, as my charts illustrate. The underlying market remains the great unknown.

 

[nononsense]

Quote from TSGannGalt:

"Every aspect human knowledge doesn't know about is random."

"Uncertainty represents our human desire for knowledge."

Uncertainty = random.

TS,

You certainly fit your own definition of random, maybe even that of your "pseudo" bias.
It ain't mine though.

Many people are truly "swinging with RANDOM" in the loose and meaningless way this term is juggled around by a bunch of pedantic market gazers. Keep on shattering trends or keep on looking for them. Whatever you like. Even random trends will do, pseudo or not.

 

[atavachron]

Some real and "artificial" prices (flights/trajectories...)
(artificial prices based on a variant of Mr Subliminal's spec, allows random (as random as TS's Random() method is) tick jumps within a predifined range - plus Brownian motion with Jumps (ala Merton) - one uses a Hurst exponent as well)...

 

[atavachron]

and the returns...
(actually one period diff in price, not log returns).