Quote from hank rollins:
yes, they are highly skilled, and they are the lucky winners in the game.
if trading is as easy as "trend following" as defined in MC's book of the same name, why couldn't you replicate the success of , say, henry ?
You sure are a slippery poster aren't you. The inference in my post was: Do you believe that pure luck alone is responsible for their results?
Or do you believe that it was some luck and some skill (doesnt matter what ratio of luck to skill, assume whatever you want) ?
If it was indeed such a combination, would removing the luck element eliminate their extraordinary results? You tell me.
No one, on this board, said trend trading was easy. If you have a 'fight' to pick with that author, go argue with him. I'm surprised your interview with him sounded so tame and restrained relative to your posting here.
There are only a few stars in any sport. Michael Jordan in bball for ex. John Henry in trend trading. (although I am sure everyone has their own pick, Seykota, Dunn, Abraham, etc)
We all have to find our own way, and what works for Henry might not work for others. Trend trading requires an almost superhuman ability to withstand drawdown, even though it does deliver spectacular returns over the long run. I don't think I have that 'almost superhuman' ability, but I don't assume that no one else has it either.
Where are those traders then you ask? Well again, trading is a sport. Especially futures, where it's a zero sum game. Don't expect the masses to be winning in trend trading, not because of the method, but because of the fact that only a select few are talented enough to extract the gains it has to offer.
Every sport will highlight the winners, who will by definition, be in a minority. The only question that you want to ask yourself, Hank, is : does my track record indicate I am in that minority?
