trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from ptunic:

I actually think NickelScalper asks a valid question. It may be a question that is formulated/executed incorrectly, but it does seem to be a valid question at least what he is trying to ask if I understand correctly. Basically he is just saying show me one trend-following system that works at least to some degree.

Now first let me address the problems that I have with NickelScalper's question. There are at least seven:

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-Taric
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An excellent post from the opposition. Thank you.

1. Please tell me how you think what I have formulated is not an indispensable element of any profitable system.

2. It has not been my intention to refuse any response proceeding to the demonstration phase.
 
Quote from hanseng1:

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However, I will not contribute heavily in the posting. We are looking forward to the birth of our second daughter on Monday, and posting signals of a system on here for the glorification of a pissing match is not high on my list of priorities. Trading will be difficult, let alone frivilous thread posting.

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Congratulations, big time!
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

Congratulations, big time!
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Grob and Nickel, we appreciate that. Thank you.

If this is something people want me to do (post a simple system) then I am willing to. I should also warn that the system would almost definately be on daily data.

Another thought would be to post the Turtle system and monitor it in a thread over a few markets.
 
I would like to thank Proflogic and Spike500 for their recent contributions here. I have learned more than you guys can imagine.
your posts were not for naught. i can assure you at least one person here has learned something.

 
Quote from hanseng1:

If this is something people want me to do (post a simple system) then I am willing to. I should also warn that the system would almost definately be on daily data.

/B]
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That would be great ! Running it in journal eod would not take too much time . If rules of your system are valid for eod I can adapt it for intraday if needed .

 
Quote from trade-ya1:

I think both the proponents as well as detracters of trend-following on this thread have focused too much on the "science" or "math" behind trend-following...

The fact is that markets spend a great deal of time moving sideways and it is those sideways or choppy markets that a trend-follower (no matter how skilled) will lose money. Knowing when to apply trend-following and to which markets is a subjective call which is often the difference between successs and failure...
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trade-ya1,

I agree with many things you said but what I don't agree is when you said...

no matter how skilled...will lose money.

Well...that's only true if the trend method has no trading plan for adapting or if the trader really wasn't a skilled trader...

Most don't based on what I see in some of the journal section and from some traders that tell me they have gone from method to method.

In addition, I do know that those that are skilled (as you reference them) when they recognize a sideways or choppy markets or markets that lack volatility...

Those skilled traders will simply either change their chart interval so that its not sideways or choppy and/or switch from that particular trading instrument to another trading instrument that is trending.

If they didn't adapt...I wouldn't call them skilled traders as to impy they are profitable traders.

In other words, its part of their trading plan that tell them its time to adapt.

To me...this is the main reason why some trend traders have big drawdowns compared to others that have very little drawdowns.

My point...examples...if the markets is choppy or sideways on the 60min chart interval...

Adapt and apply the trend method on a different chart interval that's not choppy or on whatever time frame that's not choppy.

Further, I've seen too many traders here at ET keep trading the same trading instrument with a trend method as that trading instrument traverses from trend environment to choppy environment.

Why try to be a super hero, why try to be clever when it seems to me the easier path is to either change the interval to a more tradable interval and/or change the trading instrument to one that is currently trending.

To me...what they really are saying is they either refuse to adapt as market conditions changed or didn't have the ability or trading plan for adapting.

Just needed to piss on my spot on the wall just like all the other dogs have done here :cool:

NihabaAshi
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:



Just needed to piss on my spot on the wall just like all the other dogs have done here :cool:

NihabaAshi
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rotflmfao!! :D :D

brilliant!! sums it all up really.
 
nihaba,

in response to your latest post on this thread.


i don't know the answer, you should ask several of the large trend funds ( with teams of highly skilled traders) who are down large currently--why they dont change their method to avoid losing large portions of their capital when they obviously cant find the "trend".

trade ya speaks the truth, its simply fantasy to think otherwise.


hank
 
Quote from hank rollins:

nihaba,

in response to your latest post on this thread.


i don't know the answer, you should ask several of the large trend funds ( with teams of highly skilled traders) who are down large currently--why they dont change their method to avoid losing large portions of their capital when they obviously cant find the "trend".

trade ya speaks the truth, its simply fantasy to think otherwise.

hank
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Hank,

Good point about the large trend funds.

Recently, I found out one particular fund that was down had different departments of skilled traders sort'uv speak...swing traders and those making long term investments.

Their investments were getting hit hard (losses) while their traders were doing well.

Is this the norm as in having different departments sort'uv speak or is that unusual for large trend funds???

For some reason I always thought funds was only the latter (long term investments) as they move around their assets from one holding to another.

I recently remember seeing something on one of my mom's fund summary via it saying results excluding futures contracts.

Quote from FredBloggs:

rotflmfao!! :D :D

brilliant!! sums it all up really.
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Hi Fred,

Nice to hear from you.

I stole the thought from my 2 year old that told me the other day we're all dogs as he called everybody at the grocery store (a few seem offended).

Last week we were all cows and a few weeks before that we were all turtles.

NihabaAshi
 
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