trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from winter:

NickelScalper, just to get some clarity because I see a lot of people getting hung up about d. Is it correct that you are not asking for the value d, but for a method of predicting future price action such that a profitable trade can be taken (where d is minimum price move that is "worth" trading)? I would imagine that d depends on the spread of the vehicle being traded and the round-trip commision cost.
Is that correct or are you asking for the value d as part of this challenge?
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Asked . . . answered . . . . ignored
 
Hang. If you are right about Nickel, he needs to apprentice himself to Jack to learn how to trend trade. He wants rules? He'll get 'em from Jack! I would even help! What ET needs is a fresh real-time mentoring thread. Nwb doesn't start B-school for a while, he could participate. Get the old gang back. I do miss 'em.

Whaddaya say, Nickel? Up to a REAL challenge?
 
Quote from hanseng1:

Nickel:

I already pointed out this is done by a mechanical trader using backtested results in the form of average trade. You want an exact expected result per signal; this is not how trend following works. You take the signal under the expectation that, on average after commissions and slippage, you're going to net x dollars. This is "d". It is constant through time, and once the system is not delivering "d" (determined through simple statistics) you reassess it or can it.

Also, I did some research on your past. It seems you're a failed "daytrading trend follower": ...

You scalp the QQQ, but why would you do that when you can scalp the NQ for MUCH cheaper costs? And why would a scalper be paying for trading signals?

I think you're simply a struggling trader. There is nothing wrong with this, but I also don't think your position allows you to be so critical of one's personal approach to trading if you yourself are still new and struggling.

You've recieved answers that follow your specifications several times, but you dismiss them by slightly changing the rules each time. Your rules are in opposition to the whole method of trend following. A trend system that relies on profit targets exclusively is usually not as effective as one that doesn't (this doens't mean they shouldn't be used; they are good for scaling out and whle leaving a portion to run for the trend duration). You are essentially looking for a system where the exit is only on the stop or target, and at no point in between.

That is ineffective trend following (in the majority of the cases; exceptions do exist I'm sure).
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Are you incapable of logical thought?
 
Quote from hank rollins:

there are many funds that trade without a trend. in fact the number one fund over the last three years over 100 million is managed by a non "trend believer". the traders you mention as super succesful trend followers are merely the outliers in the distribution curve--- many ( perhaps thousands) have failed trying to trade the trend.
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Yes but this #1 fund has lost every single penny of investor money not too many years ago. A strategy that has any chance of a 100% drawdown is not a viable strategy, it is just a matter of time before it happens again. WHy invest in something like this.

Whereas the trendfollowers have track records dating back 35 years for some of them and have never had drawdowns even approaching this magnitude.

If you read the "education of a speculator" even George Soros tells this "#1 fund manager" that he needs to learn to trade with the trend otherwise he is headed for trouble. This was before he blew up.

5yr

Do your research, the only way to trade is with the trend. Ask George Soros. (This is going to create a whole new argument, I love it) All of Soros big trades (British Pound especially) were trend following. So all you naysayers I would just like to thank you for giving me your money, especially Niederhoffer.
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

Are you incapable of logical thought?
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Wow, I am speachless.......

Great job addressing the issues I brought forth. I never insulted you, and stated only observations of your actions, as well as observations from several years of study on mosly trend-based or volatility-based mechanical systems. Are we getting defensive?
 
Quote from hank rollins:

with you witholding your definition of trend---anything could be said.
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You have yet to substantiate anything, instead choosing to speak entirely from underneath yourself.

M
 
Quote from 5yrtrader:

Yes but this #1 fund has lost every single penny of investor money not too many years ago. A strategy that has any chance of a 100% drawdown is not a viable strategy, it is just a matter of time before it happens again. WHy invest in something like this.

Whereas the trendfollowers have track records dating back 35 years for some of them and have never had drawdowns even approaching this magnitude.

If you read the "education of a speculator" even George Soros tells this "#1 fund manager" that he needs to learn to trade with the trend otherwise he is headed for trouble. This was before he blew up.

5yr

Do your research, the only way to trade is with the trend. Ask George Soros. (This is going to create a whole new argument, I love it) All of Soros big trades (British Pound especially) were trend following. So all you naysayers I would just like to thank you for giving me your money, especially Niederhoffer.
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On Wednesday Niederhoffer told investors in three hedge funds he runs that their stakes had been ‘wiped out’ Monday by losses that culminated from three days of falling stock prices and big hits earlier this year in Thailand.

David Henry USA Today (October 30, 1997)

3 days to wipe out 3 complete funds; isn't that proof enough that the only way is WITH the trend?
 
Quote from hanseng1:

Wow, I am speachless.......

Great job addressing the issues I brought forth. I never insulted you, and stated only observations of your actions, as well as observations from several years of study on mosly trend-based or volatility-based mechanical systems. Are we getting defensive?
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No insult was intended. I can't help wondering why your answers are so diffuse and beside the point.
 
Quote from spike500:

On Wednesday Niederhoffer told investors in three hedge funds he runs that their stakes had been ‘wiped out’ Monday by losses that culminated from three days of falling stock prices and big hits earlier this year in Thailand.

David Henry USA Today (October 30, 1997)

3 days to wipe out 3 complete funds; isn't that proof enough that the only way is WITH the trend?
More...

Thank you spike. I don't know why I bother convincing people of the correct way to trade. :D :D :D
 
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