trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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Are you telling me that you can set d to a value arbitrarily close to zero and still make a profit?
The following is included for purposes of reference:
What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
Again no response. OK Nickelscraper, you have irritated the crap out of us for more than 60 pages. Now you need to stand up, if you are able, and do the right thing. I for one, am not willing to go away.
So open up sweetheart, here is the same irritating type of comment you battered us with for 60 damn pages:
In order for a program trade to "go off" the price of either or both the cash and/or futures must diverge or converge. this movement must result in successively higher or lower highs and lows until the spread between the two reaches a threshold level. this is trend at its most basic level. I have posted the article that documents the significant volume of trades that go off on a daily basis. this information has the following significance:
1. Trends are occuring every day
2. Institutional traders are excuting program trades (also known as index arbitrage) every day.
3. The information is publicly available (and has been posted).
4. At the moment the spread between the cash and futures contract hits a threshold level, P =>d, and for that reason, arbitrageurs try to capture that profit by excuting program trades.
Since the execution of program trades requires significant preparation, skill and resource, it must burn your ass to know that you have no chance of making a dime on the info.
We are all waiting breathlessly for your comment. :eek:
So open up sweetheart, here is the same irritating type of comment you battered us with for 60 damn pages:
In order for a program trade to "go off" the price of either or both the cash and/or futures must diverge or converge. this movement must result in successively higher or lower highs and lows until the spread between the two reaches a threshold level. this is trend at its most basic level. I have posted the article that documents the significant volume of trades that go off on a daily basis. this information has the following significance:
1. Trends are occuring every day
2. Institutional traders are excuting program trades (also known as index arbitrage) every day.
3. The information is publicly available (and has been posted).
4. At the moment the spread between the cash and futures contract hits a threshold level, P =>d, and for that reason, arbitrageurs try to capture that profit by excuting program trades.
Since the execution of program trades requires significant preparation, skill and resource, it must burn your ass to know that you have no chance of making a dime on the info.
We are all waiting breathlessly for your comment. :eek:
Hank and Nickel,
being looking at the thread off and on. You make a lot of sense.
For various reasons at times markets do trend.
The crucial issue is how much anyone really knows about whether the market is going to continue in the same direction for another minute, hour or week just from looking at a chart.
If it was as easy as looking at a charts 'trend', and hopping on, then all of us would be millionaires by now...
being looking at the thread off and on. You make a lot of sense.
For various reasons at times markets do trend.
The crucial issue is how much anyone really knows about whether the market is going to continue in the same direction for another minute, hour or week just from looking at a chart.
If it was as easy as looking at a charts 'trend', and hopping on, then all of us would be millionaires by now...
Here's your comment Lefty:
"What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
I am awaiting your response."
Figured I'd do it so he didn't have to; we all know what it's gonna be.
No, I am suggesting that you don't worry about d, setting profit targets is the worst thing you could do. There is no rule for how much you make per trade, why would you want to limit your profits? Thats like saying I only want to make $100,000/year thats my profit target. If you give me more I will quit my job after I have made my $100,000/year. Please stop asking this stupid question. No one is giving you an answer, because there isn't a good answer. Now please move on.
5yr
To setup a program trade, either the cash or futures contract must MOVE in a specific fashion. I don't want to seem impolite, but I would suggest that the minimum requirement for trend to exist is as follows:
1. two (2) successive prints resulting in higher highs and higher lows or vice versa"
Moving forward, one can see that the strength or persistence of a trend is determined by the number of successive prints that follow this pattern. So the smallest (and weakest) trend is that which consists of only two prints. Conversely, a trend that consists of 10 or 20 successive prints is stronger and more persistent.
Except for two notable exceptions, everyone seems to understand what trend is. One problem with my answer is that many retail traders do not understand what a program trade (index arbitrage) is. We all start from a position of ignorance. I certainly did. For that reason, I have good reason to try to help those who approach this subject in the spirit of honest inquiry.
My own understanding has benefited from the information published by the exchange (CBOT). If you are interested I would be glad to provide additional references. Perhaps I can learn something new myself.
Best Regards,
Lefty
1. two (2) successive prints resulting in higher highs and higher lows or vice versa"
Moving forward, one can see that the strength or persistence of a trend is determined by the number of successive prints that follow this pattern. So the smallest (and weakest) trend is that which consists of only two prints. Conversely, a trend that consists of 10 or 20 successive prints is stronger and more persistent.
Except for two notable exceptions, everyone seems to understand what trend is. One problem with my answer is that many retail traders do not understand what a program trade (index arbitrage) is. We all start from a position of ignorance. I certainly did. For that reason, I have good reason to try to help those who approach this subject in the spirit of honest inquiry.
My own understanding has benefited from the information published by the exchange (CBOT). If you are interested I would be glad to provide additional references. Perhaps I can learn something new myself.
Best Regards,
Lefty
Is that the royal "we" you are using?
You really are the most amusing poster on ET.
As far as your convoluted query goes, my question to you was first and on topic and so takes precedence. In other words, after you.
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