trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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There are times that the market whipsaws creating losses fo TFs also because TF never get out at the high there are always Drawdowns, that is part of the risk they take. No one can be profitable 100% of the time in any business. It takes an outlay of capital to make money in any business venture. As for the 40% number, I would like to know which of Henry's funds you are looking at. His Strategic Allocation Program' s largest drawdown is 31%, that is his largest fund. It made 13 % last year, so I don't understand how you are "shattering" the trend following delusion. Maybe you should try it yourself.
Cordially
5yr
I haven't noticed a single responsive answer to my challenge question.
Thats because your question is idiotic. You are asking someone to say what the future price of a market is going to be, or at least asking exactly how much profit someone intends to make on a given trade. If someone can't you are declaring an end to trendfollowing. I don't know why I care, but setting profit targets is exactly what TFers don't do. If a market is going up why should you sell? If it reaches your p1 or d or what ever and is still going up why would you sell? Limit losses LET PROFITS RUN genius
Sincerly,
5yr
Quote from LMeyers:
I thought of the same thing. The similarities are too striking .
There too, superficially, a 'reasonable' demand was being made to prove profitability with past tax returns. But, in reality, underneath all the pseudo-logical babble was a desperate plea to be shown a way to guaranteed profitability.
It would not surprise me if these two posters share more than mental outlook and perhaps even have the same IP address.
Apparently, last time with $10,000 was much more attractive than this time.
It seems that if the Imaginary Trend were a reality, the following challenge question would have been answered by now:
What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
I'm looking for an answer to be posted here in plain text form. The proof of the answer is also to be posted here, as real time trading calls that specify on what basis the proposed method is being invoked and a target price.
Attention: There's no need to give up anything secret. Surely, someone must know of a second or third rate method that's beneath their dignity to employ.
What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
I'm looking for an answer to be posted here in plain text form. The proof of the answer is also to be posted here, as real time trading calls that specify on what basis the proposed method is being invoked and a target price.
Attention: There's no need to give up anything secret. Surely, someone must know of a second or third rate method that's beneath their dignity to employ.
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