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trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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Quote from hank rollins:
not at all, in fact, quite the opposite--- it shows what a good trader the person is--he can take something that has NO statistical edge yet still make consistent money..it simply shows his skill as a trader --not the validity of the underlying philosophy.
Thought about this again picking up a case of white castles, and wondered:
What if that trader always used a 4-tick stoploss, 40-tick target exit upon entry? Wouldn't random entries almost guarantee losses? Wouldn't consistent profitability show that the entry was in fact valid as an edge?
What if this trader, given a random position, actually was a horrible trader in that situation because he continually sold relative lows and bought relative highs on exit? Would you still consider him skilled as a trader? What if you knew he had to turn off his screen because he was such a horrible trader, so he wouldn't mess around with his "bogus" trend/TA-generated signal? What else would then explain his profitability, if not his entry?
Perhaps you can explain how it would be possible to profit in (directional) trading without being able to anticipate in what direction and to what minimum extent price will move after you have committed to a prospective position.Quote from 5yrtrader:
Thats because your question is idiotic. You are asking someone to say what the future price of a market is going to be, or at least asking exactly how much profit someone intends to make on a given trade. If someone can't you are declaring an end to trendfollowing. I don't know why I care, but setting profit targets is exactly what TFers don't do. If a market is going up why should you sell? If it reaches your p1 or d or what ever and is still going up why would you sell? Limit losses LET PROFITS RUN genius
Sincerly,
5yr
That is what d is in the challenge question, which I repeat for your convenience:
What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
Quote from NickelScalper:
Perhaps you can explain how it would be possible to profit in (directional) trading without being able to anticipate in what direction and to what minimum extent price will move after you have committed to a prospective position.
That is what d is in the challenge question, which I repeat for your convenience:
What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
I am now pretty sure you have little or no experience building and testing systems. Do you know what a trailing stop is and how to use it? Trading is not about predicting where price will be. You take an entry that gives you a better than 50% chance for profitable movement then manage the trade. You don't enter then wait for your target to get hit.
Trading at a timeframe longer than 30 seconds is a different game than scalping. If you expect someone to provide "proof" in your terms (the standpoint of a scalper) then you're never going to get it.
Get a Tradestation subscription and do the work yourself.
Perhaps you can explain how it would be possible to determine "a better than 50% chance for profitable movement" without being able to anticipate in what direction and to what minimum extent price will move after you have committed to a prospective positionQuote from hanseng1:
I am now pretty sure you have little or no experience building and testing systems. Do you know what a trailing stop is and how to use it? Trading is not about predicting where price will be. You take an entry that gives you a better than 50% chance for profitable movement then manage the trade. You don't enter then wait for your target to get hit.
Trading at a timeframe longer than 30 seconds is a different game than scalping. If you expect someone to provide "proof" in your terms (the standpoint of a scalper) then you're never going to get it.
Get a Tradestation subscription and do the work yourself.
That is what d is in the challenge question, which I repeat for your convenience:
What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?
So I come back to this bullshit thread and see that there is no intelligent response from Nickelscraper. Now that his question has been answered, all that he has left is to repeat his sophomoric question and label the rest of us as unresponsive.
It seems to me that this is the kind of person who would insist that his professor spell out in detail all the requirements to get an "A" grade, only to drop the class on the last possible day.
The question was answered. All requirements were met. As Nickelscraper pointed out (several times) the lack of response tells the following story:
1. He is unable to respond, because the answer doesn't suit him
2. He is unable to respond, because he is busy looking up "Index Arbitrage" and "Program Trading" on the net.
3. He is unable to respond, because the answer isn't in the form of a system he can go out and use to make money.
4. He is unable to respond because his mom grounded him and took away his computer privileges.
By the way folks, this thread now has a special place on my office bulletin board. One of the traders has highlighted some of the more humorous posts. I want to thank many of you for providing some much needed stress relief at the end of the day.
Good luck again tomorrow Nickelscraper, we all look forward to the next round of your erudite commentary.
Lefty
It seems to me that this is the kind of person who would insist that his professor spell out in detail all the requirements to get an "A" grade, only to drop the class on the last possible day.
The question was answered. All requirements were met. As Nickelscraper pointed out (several times) the lack of response tells the following story:
1. He is unable to respond, because the answer doesn't suit him
2. He is unable to respond, because he is busy looking up "Index Arbitrage" and "Program Trading" on the net.
3. He is unable to respond, because the answer isn't in the form of a system he can go out and use to make money.
4. He is unable to respond because his mom grounded him and took away his computer privileges.
By the way folks, this thread now has a special place on my office bulletin board. One of the traders has highlighted some of the more humorous posts. I want to thank many of you for providing some much needed stress relief at the end of the day.
Good luck again tomorrow Nickelscraper, we all look forward to the next round of your erudite commentary.
Lefty
Good night, your inflatedness.Quote from Lefty62151:
So I come back to this bullshit thread and see that there is no intelligent response from Nickelscraper. Now that his question has been answered, all that he has left is to repeat his sophomoric question and label the rest of us as unresponsive.
It seems to me that this is the kind of person who would insist that his professor spell out in detail all the requirements to get an "A" grade, only to drop the class on the last possible day.
The question was answered. All requirements were met. As Nickelscraper pointed out (several times) the lack of response tells the following story:
1. He is unable to respond, because the answer doesn't suit him
2. He is unable to respond, because he is busy looking up "Index Arbitrage" and "Program Trading" on the net.
3. He is unable to respond, because the answer isn't in the form of a system he can go out and use to make money.
4. He is unable to respond because his mom grounded him and took away his computer privileges.
By the way folks, this thread now has a special place on my office bulletin board. One of the traders has highlighted some of the more humorous posts. I want to thank many of you for providing some much needed stress relief at the end of the day.
Good luck again tomorrow Nickelscraper, we all look forward to the next round of your erudite commentary.
Lefty
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