trend following delusion shattered

[Mathemagician]

Quote from NickelScalper:

What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?

I'm looking for your answer to be posted here in plain text form. The proof of your answer is also to be posted here, as real time trading calls that specify on what basis your method is being invoked and a target price.

Now's the time to step up.

No free lunch for you, buddy. Do your own work!

M

 

[Pabst]

Quote from OldTrader:

Rollins:

You claimed to have done some testing regarding "trends". So how did you define the trend to find out if it "worked"? I'm absolutely certain you used NONE of the definitions on your website or the one above. How did the study recognize that a "trend" existed?

OldTrader

Hey OT! Aren't we the "trend traders" who were selling the index at 1220?

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from illiquid:

So if all publicly available information is useless in forecasting price movement, I assume that Nickel doesn't use a chart or quote provider at all?

Not quite logical.

"All publicly available information and techniques are effectively already in the market price, because there's no way for the individual trader to reliably compete against the resources and access of the collective competition including the bigger players."

The principle of efficiency doesn't apply to the use of standard quotes in a proprietary system.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yes, that is correct. We have been carrying on a conversation with someone who by definition believes that you might as well flip a coin to determine when to buy or sell.

What an ignorant statement.

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from Pabst:

Hey OT! Aren't we the "trend traders" who were selling the index at 1220?

I think you gotta call that knowing when to "trend trade" and when not to. LOL.

That's why I'm wondering how Rollins and his professors define the trend. If they wait for the circumstances we saw that particular morning then it's no wonder their "tests" don't work.

OldTrader

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from Mathemagician:

No free lunch for you, buddy. Do your own work!

M

There is no free lunch for anybody.

That's why 19 out of 20 follows of the Imaginary Trend blow up.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from NickelScalper:

There is no free lunch for anybody.

That's why 19 out of 20 follows of the Imaginary Trend blow up.

No its not.

Most people who attempt to follow trends blow up because they fail to be able to implement the classical advice. They dont cut their losses short (or they cut them too short) or they don't let their winners run. In other words they fail to follow the trend.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from kiwi_trader:

No its not.

Most people who attempt to follow trends blow up because they fail to be able to implement the classical advice. They dont cut their losses short (or they cut them too short) or they don't let their winners run. In other words they fail to follow the trend.

No one goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded.

If price trend was anything but a fantasy, it would be such easy money that no one could get any.

 

[yenzen]

Quote from NickelScalper:

No one goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded.

If price trend was anything but a fantasy, it would be such easy money that no one could get any.

Its no surprise we have these kinds of arguments at decade lows in volatility. "Nickel Scalpers" profess to have all the wisdom as trends are aborted in mid stream and the mean regression guys jump on their soapboxes and claim victory.

Senor Zen

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from hank rollins:

2 questions--- why is the great trend follower experiencing such massive drawdowns right now ? he is obviously on the wrong side of the trend.

number 2--if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend ?

"why is the great trend follower experiencing such massive drawdowns right now ?" - Well common sense would tell me he is not that great of a Trend Trader if he is experiencing ANY major drawdowns. Read below for an explanation.

"if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend ?" - Allow to put this tired phrase to bed Hank. A coin toss has 2 possible outcomes; heads or tails, thus impossible to create a trend where there is no variable. Price has 4 possible outcomes; HH, LH, LL or HL, thus establishing a variable and creating the possibility of creating a trend. A trend is established where 3 sequential points are confirmed; HH, HL & HH or HL, HH & HL to establish a Bull Trend. Or a LL, LH & LL or LH, LL & LH to establish a Bear Trend. Once you have confirmed a trend the expectation is that price will continue in that trend until it fails to continue in that trend. (stinking Logic) Once an oscillation is confirmed to break out of that trend, price will do one of ONLY three things; either continue on in the past trend, consolidate or create a new trend. All easily readable from the oscillations.

I know this is a simply explanation but it doesn't need to be quantitative physics.