trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from jonnysharp:

i can see how that chart would offend a nickel scalper.
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re ; #5 trend is not a prediction

And that chart may offend a nickle surfer.:D



Profitlogic congrads on your 5 year old, but another disadvantage to being 5 years old;
5 ones seems so much better than a 5 dollar bill.:cool:

Was not calling surfer or scalper a 5 year old;
simply observing 5 trends.
 
another observation on trend following.


trend following and buy/sell & hold are the same thing as proven by the HUGE drawdowns the trend following funds experience.

how can these guys say they cut their losses when sometimes they are down over 50% ? something makes no sense.

any comments ?
 
Quote from hank rollins:

another observation on trend following.


trend following and buy/sell & hold are the same thing as proven by the HUGE drawdowns the trend following funds experience.

how can these guys say they cut their losses when sometimes they are down over 50% ? something makes no sense.

any comments ?
More...
They both depend on luck rather than cause and effect.
 
Quote from hank rollins:

another observation on trend following.


trend following and buy/sell & hold are the same thing as proven by the HUGE drawdowns the trend following funds experience.

how can these guys say they cut their losses when sometimes they are down over 50% ? something makes no sense.

any comments ?
More...

ur arguments are no better than some frustrated academic sitting in an ivory tower lecturing his students on his flawed and loaded "theories". Are u just Vic's little pawn, sent to Elite Trader to try and regurgitate his popular theories on trend following, his contempt for all trend followers and his not so subtle attacks on anyone who does promote trend following. Ur so transparent marketsurfer, u cant even see it urself. No one respects ur opinions because we know u dont even have the intellectual capacity to defend them. It's clear to all of us why u have become a hack journalist, ur gann channels are bogus and ur "hedge fund" never really did launch now did it?

So save us all ur pathetic attempts at trying to sound like a "quant", when we all know ur just Vic's little puppet.

Senor Zen
 
I like Hank Rollins, however, I must respectfully disagree wholeheartedly with regard to the issue of trend-following. The existence of trends in my opinion is clear. With that said, a trend is not a guarantee of immediate success, rather, a greater probability of price movement in the direction of the path of least resistance (the trend). The current movements of Oil, $, past movement of Nasdaq in bubble years, Gold during the large run-up in the 80s are all evidence of major trends that have occured. The bank accounts of John Henry, Bill Dunn, George Soros, Stan Druckenmiller, etc. etc. provide further evidence. Science or more specifically, Physics (adaptations of theory of Inertia) can be applied to the markets successfully. The market is a living organism with a specific personality made up of cells (traders) each living and having a personality and an agenda of their own. As a living organism, with living components, the laws of Nature and Physics can be applied. I need to smoke a joint if you want me to continue...:-)
 
hey, trade ya---had to be post 666 that we disagreed upon.... :D


thanks for the post. your opinion carries much weight with me.


have a great weekend !


:)
 
The trend is up until its down and its down until its up, unless its sideways.

I don't think the debate over a trending vs non trending market has too much to do with a traders ulimate success. A number of successful traders believe in assorted forms of bullshit, but they are still successful. I suspect being a successful trader is much like being successful in anything else. If you figure out a set of rules that work for you and you play by them you will do fine. Most people are not disciplined enough to continuely do that though and they fail, trends or no.

Brandon
 
Three topics of trend to consider:

1. The tendency of price up until now
2. The tendency of price from now forward
3. The relationship between 1 and 2, if any

So far, the trend followers have kept going back to the first, non-controversial, issue.

Tough customers, however, want the trend followers to show them the goodies behind door number 3.
 
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