trend following delusion shattered

hank rollins · Mar 18, 2005

i actually like you, professor, despite the improbability of your market claims.

enjoy the surf !!

hank

ProfLogic · Mar 18, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

i actually like you, professor, despite the improbability of your market claims.

enjoy the surf !!

hank

Hank, how can I enjoy what I do not know will return?

I enjoy your comments as well.

jonnysharp · Mar 18, 2005

nickelscalper, why are you so fixated that trends must be predictable to be of any worth, it is all just numbers.

take 100 random stocks below $10. in 1 year about 3 - 5 of them will have risen over 100%, using a 10% stop loss the rest is just slop and the outliers is where you make money. simple logic. its all just numbers no astrology, no voo-doo, no crystal balls, just numbers.

small losses
small wins
large wins

do the math.

Banjo · Mar 18, 2005

The wierd thing is that in the end it's all about the moon and lunatics.

OddTrader · Mar 18, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

show me a instance that is quantifiable that historical price predicts a continuation of price in the particular direction at a greater level than 50/50.

As a newbie in trading, I learned that probably most trend-followers would Not expect (or require) a 50/50 win-rate to be profitable. Is it true?

VictorS · Mar 18, 2005

Proflogic, Spike...

Looking at today's closing, is that a lower high to short or a higher high to look for long trend now? Not looking for accuracy just trying to follow along here.

what would confirm that price will not go down anymore? higher supports?

jonnysharp · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from OddTrader:

As a newbie in trading, I learned that probably most trend-followers would Not expect (or require) a 50/50 win-rate to be profitable. Is it true?

i think any trendfollowing system that has a 50% win rate is suspect because it will most likely have a very tight exit, which curbs milking those outliers. anything above 25% i will look at with most being around 30-38%.

OddTrader · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from jonnysharp:

i think any trendfollowing system that has a 50% win rate is suspect because it will most likely have a very tight exit, which curbs milking those outliers. anything above 25% i will look at with most being around 30-38%.

Quote from jonnysharp:

i would be sceptical of anything with a win rate over 60/70% because given enough data every strategy will revert back to 50%.

Probably win-rate should not be the only or main measure to evaluate a system, I believe.

Do you find the Robust Statistics mentioned in Ryan Jones book The Trading Game useful?

Would like to know any details for a minimum set of performance measures (such as win-rate, profit factor, etc.) you would have in mind for different types (such as trend-following, antitrend, etc.) of profitable systems on average standard. Thanks.

TSGannGalt · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from Banjo:

The wierd thing is that in the end it's all about the moon and lunatics.

Because it is...

That's why Gann traders rock.

Bwahahahahahahahahaahahahahahaha

ProfLogic · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from VictorS:

Proflogic, Spike...

Looking at today's closing, is that a lower high to short or a higher high to look for long trend now? Not looking for accuracy just trying to follow along here.

what would confirm that price will not go down anymore? higher supports?

If you tell me the timeframe you are comfortable with trading; i.e. intraday or position. I will tell you where price will go. Please bear with me because I can't respond until Sunday evening. I'm going out of town shopping for my son's birthday for a couple day. Damn I wish I was 5 again.