trend following delusion shattered

VictorS · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from ProfLogic:

If you tell me the timeframe you are comfortable with trading; i.e. intraday or position. I will tell you where price will go. Please bear with me because I can't respond until Sunday evening. I'm going out of town shopping for my son's birthday for a couple day. Damn I wish I was 5 again.

Intraday. like I said, I am just trying to see if i am following along with what you claim. I see the validity of what you and Spike have said, although it isn't logical beforehand.

please don't think I am a naysayer trying to conflict on a public board. you can even pm with your opinion if you feel it necessary.

thanks for the time

ProfLogic · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from jonnysharp:

i think any trendfollowing system that has a 50% win rate is suspect because it will most likely have a very tight exit, which curbs milking those outliers. anything above 25% i will look at with most being around 30-38%.

Maybe some subjective methods but definitely not all. I am really tired of hearing uninformed people make assumptions about things they know nothing about. For all you individuals that don't understand or believe how a trend following method can be a high percentage method, I will start a trading journal, posting trades in realtime to prove it to you. I will only position trade in it (approximately 20 trades a month) because I trade intraday for myself. I'll post for 4 weeks and begin the journal next week.

hank rollins · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from OddTrader:

As a newbie in trading, I learned that probably most trend-followers would Not expect (or require) a 50/50 win-rate to be profitable. Is it true?

if the probability of success is not greater than 50/50--would not simple random entries, with good discipline / money management be all one needs ?

hank rollins · Mar 19, 2005

responding to gann's earlier post----

yes, he is correct that it is the fat tails and outliers that allow "trend folowing " to work for some traders.

in addition, succesful trend traders are also outliers in real world trading. one cannot point at a success who claims to be a trend trader and say "look trend trading works"

hank

TSGannGalt · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

one cannot point at a success who claims to be a trend trader and say "look trend trading works"

hank

That's with any kind of success in any profession.

NickelScalper · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

...

thank you.

hank

Likewise.

Especially, thanks for that example about flipping a coin for 10 heads in a row being a "heads trend." It helped my own approach.

There have been several worthwhile posts on either side of this topic. Sorting out issues is an excellent use of this thing we call the internet.

Lefty62151 · Mar 19, 2005

Based on what I have read, you would have got about the same quality of advice at your local bowling alley.

OddTrader · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

if the probability of success is not greater than 50/50--would not simple random entries, with good discipline / money management be all one needs ?

Q
"Just as money management needs the method or system; the method or system needs money management."

--- The Trading Game (by Ryan Jones)
UQ

hank rollins · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from TSGannGalt:

That's with any kind of success in any profession.

professions that deal with speculation, perhaps.

there are not many, if any, broke plumbers, doctors, lawyers, etc who became this way due to their chosen field. you cant say that for traders.

NickelScalper · Mar 19, 2005

Quote from jonnysharp:

nickelscalper, why are you so fixated that trends must be predictable to be of any worth, it is all just numbers.

take 100 random stocks below $10. in 1 year about 3 - 5 of them will have risen over 100%, using a 10% stop loss the rest is just slop and the outliers is where you make money. simple logic. its all just numbers no astrology, no voo-doo, no crystal balls, just numbers.

small losses
small wins
large wins

do the math.

Every time I'm presented with an off-the-shelf system, I remember that old standby market efficiency. In this case:

If a method like the one you describe ever became public, it would immediately become useless, because there's no way for the individual trader to reliably compete against the resources and access of the collective competition including the bigger players.