trend following delusion shattered

Status
Not open for further replies.
My 2 cents:

Would it be possible that we can see and calculate "an uptrend which is 'very much theoretically :)' a succession of higher highs and higher lows formed by (say 2 or more) consecutive bars, of which the highs and lows are relatively close to a linear regression line moving upwards, statistically"? :confused:
 
fantastic !


thank you hang seng, gann, old trader, nickel scalper-----

you guys definately put my mind in gear---- what a great thread !


it seems that gann, and hang seng have laid out some strong proofs on the existence of trend--HOWEVER, i am still in nickel scalpers corner regarding the actual use of trend for "high probability" executions. i remain extremely skeptical.

hank
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

What would be an instance of "trend," as you have defined it, where price action within a certain timeframe implies a causal tendency that can be extrapolated to indicate future price?
More...



the instance you speak of does not exist.

brilliant.


thank you.


hank:)
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Jeez Surfer,

Heres a definition of a trend:

"A trend is whatever I need to see (with or without the assistance of indicators, hhhl, or whatever) that has historically predicted that continuation in that direction is more likely....

.
More...


kiwi,

show me a instance that is quantifiable that historical price predicts a continuation of price in the particular direction at a greater level than 50/50.

best,

hank
 
Some traders only look at tick charts, point-and-figure charts and other charts/methods that ignore time altogether. They may include time on the chart for reference, but it plays no role in their analysis of trend.

So I'd say that definition isn't universally defined/accepted.


Quote from NickelScalper:

My definition was: Trend is the rate of change of price with respect to time.

It's possible that this concept is not officially defined in the trading world.
More...
 
Quote from hank rollins:

kiwi,

show me a instance that is quantifiable that historical price predicts a continuation of price in the particular direction at a greater level than 50/50.

best,

hank
More...
But what drives price...

or restricts it hank?
 
Hank,

I could with microtrends on the hsi (which is what i trade) but to do so would reveal my strategy and I am not willing to do so. And I am not willing to do the maths to prove it ... but its there.

LOL ... so those who cant argue about it ... and those who can trade it. I am sure I have heard something like this before????
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Hank,

I could with microtrends on the hsi (which is what i trade) but to do so would reveal my strategy and I am not willing to do so. And I am not willing to do the maths to prove it ... but its there.

LOL ... so those who cant argue about it ... and those who can trade it. I am sure I have heard something like this before????
More...



ok, fine. i am certainly not trying to disparage or poach your system. congrats on finding success !!

hank :) :)
 
As I sit on Clearwater Beach watching the sun melt into the horizon I see the Gulf that earlier had retreated past the pier toward the seemingly endless expanse to the West seeking it's lowest tidal wash, start to return on its neverending cycle. I have been sitting here for hours, first as the high tide tickled my feet and children played n the break water to now, waiting for the Gulf to return to me from low tide and once again wash over me from it's randon cul de sac.

But wait . . . alas Hank Rollins and a soothsayer named Nickel speak that there is no way for me to ever realize the return of the soothing water on it's cyclical journey. They say that just because it was here once before, that it has returned repeatedly since the beginning of time and that it's cyclic nature has been straight and true as an arrow . . . there is no guarantee it will come again with any predictability. If it can't be measured with quantitative analysis, statistical smoke & mirrors or a mathamatical equation it can't exist. It makes no difference that we can see it, touch it and ahhh, even taste it's fruit . . . we are told by those way smarter than we, that it can't exist.

The children too will be so disappointed when they return to play in the breakwater and all they find is sand.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top