trend following delusion shattered

[ProfLogic]

Quote from hank rollins:

no he does not, bro. if he can predict the market 1 -2 hours into the future with 90% accuracy--i don't care how he does it.

with a proven system like that, i'll happily intro him to some major major money.

hank

Hank, what you don't grasp is that when we trade like this, and we do consistently. We don't need major money. We make enough to make us very comfortable and it gives us a kick that the "major" money is clueless to how we do what we do.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from hank rollins:

no he does not, bro. if he can predict the market 1 -2 hours into the future with 90% accuracy--i don't care how he does it.

with a proven system like that, i'll happily intro him to some major major money.

hank

How can you talk about money when there's a principle at stake?

Though I got the sense that Spike does make money, after all that.

 

[winter]

Quote from spike500:

Look at the chart: i posted where the red arrow stands. Where was the price for the next hour?

Quote from spike500 at 03-16-05 11:17 AM:

For me it was short from the opening and the trend will stay short for at least 1 hour to go, probably even 2 hours.
When i say the trend is short i don't mean the bottom. I mean that in that period you should never go long.

At 11:17 ESM5 was at 1195
At 12:17 ESM5 was at 1195
At 13:17 ESM5 was at 1196

This is what a short trend looks like?

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from winter:

At 11:17 ESM5 was at 1195
At 12:17 ESM5 was at 1195
At 13:17 ESM5 was at 1196

This is what a short trend looks like?

Winter,

you don't trade on the trendsignals. It gives you the direction. If the trend is short you sell high and buy low and you never go long.
How low did we go?
I also said that the trend was short from the opening. I only posted the trend when i came home. I knew that a big part of the move was over; but it's better to post something then nothing and say at the close: i know what would happen.

The trend surely wasn't long because we stayed all the time under 1195. And the move isn't finished be patient.


The trend gives the direction where the risc/reward ratio is the best. That's the only use of a trend.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from spike500:

The trend gives the direction where the risc/reward ratio is the best. That's the only use of a trend.

Spike, notice there was no response to my chart or explanation detailing trend and profitable trades created from past price data.

 

[winter]

Quote from spike500:

Winter,

you don't trade on the trendsignals. It gives you the direction. If the trend is short you sell high and buy low and you never go long.
How low did we go?
I also said that the trend was short from the opening. I only posted the trend when i came home. I knew that a big part of the move was over; but it's better to post something then nothing and say at the close: i know what would happen.

The trend surely wasn't long because we stayed all the time under 1195. And the move isn't finished be patient.


The trend gives the direction where the risc/reward ratio is the best. That's the only use of a trend.

A simple yes/no will suffice - are you saying that the one hour period in question represents a short trend by your definition?

 

[ForrestGump]

Quote from spike500:

........

The trend gives the direction where the risc/reward ratio is the best. That's the only use of a trend..............

Very nicely said.

And you can manage to make good entries by 'scaling-in' in the direction of the trend. Even if no single entry is perfect, on average the entries will turn out to be good enough to make very profitable exits (most of the time).

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from NickelScalper:

How can you talk about money when there's a principle at stake?

Though I got the sense that Spike does make money, after all that.

interesting philosophy. i must say, i am learning from this thread ! thank you nickel, spiker, prof, turfman , and others.

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Hank, what you don't grasp is that when we trade like this, and we do consistently. We don't need major money. We make enough to make us very comfortable and it gives us a kick that the "major" money is clueless to how we do what we do.

i can grasp it, prof. although i don't understand your system but i do understand this :


one can certainly do much more trading small , than trading large in the traditional manner.

 

[sammybea]

Quote from sammybea:

What does worst drawdown mean? In a particular month? Or at some point this fund was down a certain percentage?

Anyone?