trend following delusion shattered

[Lefty62151]

Finally some intelligent comment. Yes you can use scale-in methods to work the trend, PROVIDED YOU ARE NOT A WEAK HAND. If you are a weak hand, you will get flushed out before you get to a profitable position. So to use scale-in, you have to know your levels. In particular, you have to know at what level you are wrong.

Also, what we are seeing here (looking at the ES) is price at a crossroads. It will either move up to a late day reversal (about a 11% probability) or re-establish the early trend down (about 80% probability, or just fluctuate at these levels (you do the math).

It would make sense to have a method for drawing a line in the sand. In addition, a prudent trader needs to adjust position size according to the probabilities.

I am flat here waiting for the market to tell me what to do.

LOL
Lefty

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from ForrestGump:

Very nicely said.

And you can manage to make good entries by 'scaling in' in the direction of the trend. Even if no single entry is perfect, on average the entries will turn out to be good enough to make very profitable exits (most of the time).

Indeed.

I constantly monitor the trend and adapt the prediction each hour. So a trend that initially started with a 1 hour prediction can end after 1 hour, but can continue for 5 hours as well. Depending on the strenght of the trend i have different scenario's. Some scenario's can give already a pr'ediction for yhe next 2 or 3 hours. So the predictions are managed dynamically. They are constantly corrected by the new quotes that come in.

PS: i don't answer to questions that give me the impression that they are posed with malicious intentions. Especially if they phrase the sentence and i only can say yes or no. ForrestGump, this remark is not adressed to you.

PS2: Lefty, i went at 1197. Sell the tops.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from sammybea:

Anyone?

Samy,

you take the last highest return.
after that you take the lowest return AFTER YOU MADE A NEW HIGH.
The difference gives you an idea about the risc you take. It calculates how much you would lose if you started with the worst possible moment.

 

[winter]

Anyone could have called the same one hour period a long trend and by "scaling-in" and dynamically updating the prediction made money too. A prediction that does not stand on its own but has to be explained after the fact isnt worth very much.

The fact that you had the nerve to come back one hour later, post a chart and crow about how right you were ("Look at the chart: i posted where the red arrow stands. Where was the price for the next hour?") amazes me. No wonder you are 90% accurate - apparently you are the one who is scoring your accuracy rate.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from winter:

Anyone could have called the same one hour period a long trend and by "scaling-in" and dynamically updating the prediction made money too. A prediction that does not stand on its own but has to be explained after the fact isnt worth very much.

The fact that you had the nerve to come back one hour later, post a chart and crow about how right you were ("Look at the chart: i posted where the red arrow stands. Where was the price for the next hour?") amazes me. No wonder you are 90% accurate - apparently you are the one who is scoring your accuracy rate.

The price was CONSTANTLY UNDER the red line.

Where are we standing now?
Where could you made the biggest profits above or under 1195?
We just made a new low.
You're not objective and your only intention is to break down others. Most losers take this kind of attitude.
But i'm used to this kind of critics.

Within a few days we'll know who knows something and who doesn't.

 

[sammybea]

Quote from spike500:

Samy,

you take the last highest return.
after that you take the lowest return AFTER YOU MADE A NEW HIGH.
The difference gives you an idea about the risc you take. It calculates how much you would lose if you started with the worst possible moment.

Thank you very much spike!

 

[winter]

Quote from spike500:

Where could you made the biggest profits above or under 1195?

Let's see, started at 1195, ended at 1195....hmm, I'd have to say that someone could have made the same profits either long or short during that period, it all depended on the entry and exits.

Of course when you start talking about things that weren't in the original prediction, like where the market is now, that's just muddying the waters to confuse what is a simple issue: the market trend up as much as it trended down during that one hour period.

 

[ProfLogic]

Darn trends don't work. Look at this chart.
LOWER HIGH - LOWER LOW - LH - LL - LH - LL - LH - LL
I mean gee . . . how can anyone make any money with the Market continuously failing to make higher highs and breaching each low. You have to have an IQ of 80 to make money with this crap.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from winter:

Let's see, started at 1195, ended at 1195....hmm, I'd have to say that someone could have made the same profits either long or short during that period, it all depended on the entry and exits.

Of course when you start talking about things that weren't in the original prediction, like where the market is now, that's just muddying the waters to confuse what is a simple issue: the market trend up as much as it trended down during that one hour period.

Winter,

This is my last reaction on your posting because they are destructive instead of constructive.
My English is not too good , so that might explain why there are maybe misunderstandings about my predictions of the trend.
I will explain it a last time and that will be it.
I normally can see 1 hour in advance if the trend will change or not.
Depending on the circumstances it can be 2 or even 3 hours.
When the trend is established I only trade in the direction of the trend.
In each move there is noise. You apparently think that in a short trend every tick we get is lower than the previous one. In real trading this isn’t so. We get every now and then a correction in the opposite direction.
So in a short trend we can have an opposite move. But that’s just the art: finding the right trend in all these moves and filtering out the noise.

To argue the way you do it: in the first hour you couldn’t make as much money going long as going short. The low was 1192, which gives 1195-1192= 3 points. The high was 1197.5, which gives 1197.5-1195= 2.5 points. In fact the close of the minute I posted was 1195.50 instead of 1195 which gives 2.00 and 3.50 points.
So from this point of view the trend was short.
If you say that it depends on the entry and exit than you can prove anything; if there is a move up of 150 points you can say that the trend was short because you took a 0.5 point profit short and you missed the long.

Now we have reached this point it’s clear that it is useless to argue with you.
You are probably the expert and I ‘m the newbie. ELITEtrader is indeed the forum for you, I think I better go to Raging Bull.

At this moment I only have a 5 points profit (short 1197) but for a newbie I’m satisfied.


PS: Proflogic, trends do work; the only problem is to find a trend that works.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from spike500:

Winter,

This is my last reaction on your posting because they are destructive instead of constructive.
My English is not too good , so that might explain why there are maybe misunderstandings about my predictions of the trend......

Spike.....

It's not your English. You should be charging some of these people for the good info you've placed here today. Stop giving away these good secrets!!! Good posts today!

BSAM